A Study Of Regional Environmental Carrying Capacity

Environmental carrying capacity is the constraints of regional economic development.Based on the scale of economic and population,a new method is proposed to calculate the regional environmental carrying capacity.With the introduction of the pollutant emission intensity and the resource utilization factor,the models about the water environment?atmospheric environment and land sources are determined.Taking an example of Yangzhou city in 2020,this article will calculate the values of water environment carrying capacity,atmospheric environment carrying capacity and land carrying capacity.This article considers different methods,such as curve-fitting(linear-regression analysis?exponential smoothing?Logistic)?discharge coefficient tmethed?orthogonal test?interval estimation and so on.By the sensitivity analysis of the parameters,the regional environmental carrying capacity can be determined.The result shows:1?When COD is a major constraining factor,the annual water environmental carrying capacity of Yangzhou City rangs from 3499×108 to 17532×108 yuan in GDP.When SO2 is a major constraining factor,the annual atmospheric environmental carrying capacity of Yangzhou City rangs from 6368x 108 to 45224×108 yuan in GDP.When taken into account the continuity of the policy of pollutant reduction,the annualwater environmental carrying capacity of Yangzhou City can achieve 17532×108 yuan in GDP,with a confidence level of 90%and a confidence interval of 17421 ×108?17659×108 yuan.And the annual atmospheric environmental carrying capacity of Yangzhou City can achieve 45224×108 yuan in GDP,with a confidence level of 90%and a confidence interval of 45016×108?45079×108 yuan.Taking into account the continuity of the level of the resident consumes,the annual landcarrying capacity of Yangzhou City can achieve 10663×108 yuan in GDP,with a confidence level of 90%and a confidence interval of 10273×108?12111×108 yuan.Then,the annual regional environmental carrying capacity of Yangzhou City can rang from 3499×108 to 10663×108 yuan in GDP.2?According to the model,the sensitivity analysis is analyzed to rank the parameters.When the total amount control goal and the sources are determined,The main limiting factors of economic growth are the pollutant emission intensity and the output per unit land.3?If the regional economic growth target touches 4595 x 108 yuan,the COD emission intensity should be below0.85 kg/104 yuan per unit of industrial value-added;the SO2 emission intensity should be below 6.93 kg/104 yuan per unit of industrial value-added;under the existing level of consumption,the output per unit industrial land should be above 2.52×108 yuan/km2 per unit of the industrial land.