Evaluation Of Resources And Environmental Carrying Capacity Based On Fme And AHP

In recent years,resource and environmental problems are becoming increasingly prominent,along with the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid improvement of social and economic development in China.Taking the path of sustainable development,building resource-saving and environment-friendly society,has become the only way to coordinate the development among resources,environment and social economy.It has also become the consensus of the international community.Resources and environment carrying capacity?RECC?,as an important reference basis to measure the coordinated development of regional resources,environment,society and economy,has become the key to evaluate the coordinated development of regional human-land relations.Zhenjiang is located in south-central of Jiangsu province.Although Zhenjiang has a relatively developed economy and a high degree of urbanization,it also faces some problems of man-land conflict,such as over-crowded population,deficient resources,environment pollution and so on.This study,taking Zhenjiang as an example,based on the review of relevant researches and theories at home and abroad,constructed the evaluation index system of four levels of RECC.Based on Zhenjiang's historical datum from 2009 to 2016,using the methods of fuzzy matter-element?FME?and analytic hierarchy process?AHP?,this paper studied the evaluation of RECC in order to reveal the temporal evolution of Zhenjiang city.The results had two effects.On the one hand,it provided datum support for the optimal allocation and improvement of RECC of Zhenjiang.On the other hand,it also provided decision-making reference for solving resource and environment problems for cities of the same type,and for coordinated and sustainable development among resources,environment and social economy.Main conclusions of this study were as follows.?1?Connotation and research scope of RECC had been defined based on the review of relevant researches and theories at home and abroad.Evaluation index system of four levels of RECC had been constructed after analyzing the current situation of resources and environment of Zhenjiang city.?2?FME and AHP were selected to evaluate RECC of Zhenjiang.The evaluation results were as follows.?1?Two kinds of evaluation results also showed that,from 2009 to 2016,value of RECC of Zhenjiang?A?showed a growth trend in total.When FME was adopted,it's value increased from 0.1955 to 0.5505,with an overall increase of 1.8 times.When AHP was adopted,it increased from 0.2990 to 0.7408,with an overall increase of 1.5times.?2?In both cases,subsystems in the criterion layer?B?including resources?B₁?,environment?B₂?,society?B₃?and economy?B₄?were in a state of fluctuation or continuous growth.When FME was adopted,values of B₁,B_2,and B₃ fluctuanted from 0.2307,0.3024 and 0.0803 to 0.4061,0.5155 and 0.6150,while that of B₄ grew continuously from 0.0000 to 0.9976.When AHP was adopted,values of B₁ and B₂fluctuant from 0.1134 and 0.1682 to 0.1227 and 0.2447,while that of B₃ and B₄ grew continuously from 0.0175 and 0.0000 to 0.1683 and 0.2051.Values order of average growth rate of subsystems was represented by B₄>B₃>B₁>B₂.?3?In both cases,carrying capacity of resources status?C₁?,water environment?C₂?,living standards?C₅?,population?C₆?,infrastructure?C₇?and economic development?C₈?in elements layer?C?all had different degrees of improvement,while that of solid waste environment?C₄?showed a declining trend.At the same time,carrying capacity of atmospheric environment?C₃?of two methods showed different trends.As to two kinds of evaluation results separately based on FME and AHP,this paper conducted correlation analysis.Result of correlation coefficient showed there existed consistent characteristic of trend change.In both cases,correlation coefficient of the layer of A is 0.9643.Correlation coefficients of the layer of B ranged from 0.7643 to 0.9999.In the layer of C,in addition to C₃,correlation coefficients of other elements ranged from 0.6572 to0.9999.Meanwhile,difference significance analysis was used to identify the difference of evaluation results of two methods.P-values came less than 0.01,which means results of two methods had significant difference.It can be seen that there was no difference between two methods in the variation trends of carrying capacity evaluation results,but there is a significant difference in the absolute value of evaluation results.?4?Based on the trend analysis of two methods on RECC of Zhenjiang,problems of uneven development among subsystems in the system of RECC should be found in layers of C and B.In the layer of C,development speeds of resources,atmosphere and solid waste environment were obviously lower than that of infrastructure construction and economic development.In the layer of B,development speeds of resource and environment obviously laged behind that of society and economy.Therefore,elements of resources and environment became shortcomings in the development of the system of RECC.Further enhancing carrying capacity of the subsystems of resources and environment and realizing balanced development among four subsystems?systems of resources,environment,society and economy?,would still be the key issues to realizing the future sustainable development strategy of Zhenjiang.