Analysis For The Price Affecting Factors Of EU ETS And Revelation To China

Recently with the development of society,economic and technology,some environmental issues which accompanied by carbon emissions have become increasingly apparent.The most serious trouble above-mentioned is the greenhouse effect.With the climate changes a new emerging financial market——carbon trading market has come into being to promote enterprises and individuals carry on carbon reduction activities to control its emissions by market means and mechanisms that the managers give the price of greenhouse gas emissions right.From the current situation of global carbon markets,EU ETS is the most successful market system for its rich experience in supervising the price and mobility of allowance.This research focuses on the analysis of affecting factors of EU ETS price,including some relevant policies and energy price factors that affect the ellowance.Then,through the current situation and the exposed problems of the domestic pilot carbon trading market,this paper combines the reform history and experience of the EU ETS system,given the corresponding reference recommendations.EU ETS system,has a wealth of experience in maintaining the stable operation of the carbon trading market such as the use of ellowance,policy development and reform,the management of related enterprises on the market.These historical experience for other countries or economies in developing carbon trading market.Therefore to research the EU ETS price factors including the allocation of ellowance policy,the impact of relevant energy factors and environmental factors can build a unified domestic carbon market.So valuable inspiration and reference recommendations can be provided to promote China’s low-carbon economic development.The affecting factors of ellowance price and methods are analyzed from theory and empiricism in this literature.In the previous half of the article,predecessor’s references and qualitative analysis are adopted with some related historical materials to reviewed its development history,problems and reform measures.Then analyzed affecting factors,related policy and reform results from theory.The latter part of the literature through the establishment of the corresponding model and correlation analysis examine the theoretical analysis from empirical view.Regression model withdummy variables is established to verify the effect of allocation’s policy on the ellowance price in the first part.It is found that the allocation policy has a significant effect on the ellowance price.In the second part the cointegration relationship between the ellowance price and the affecting factors is tested and the error correction model is established to research the short-term fluctuation of ellowance price.Then using vector VAR model for impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to compare the impact of endogenous factors;The gray relational analysis method was used to compare the correlation between these affecting factors and the ellowance price in the last section of the empirical study.The results of the research are as follows:1.Regression model with dummy variable was used to analyze the related distribution policy changes on the impact of ellowance price.Before 2013 the main way was free distribution.Then auction became the main distribution method from2013.The results found that the distribution of the auction policy can reduce the average price of ellowance compared with the free period.2.The results of the cointegration analysis showed that there were long-term stable relationships between the factors that affected the ellowance price.The results of the Granger causality test showed that the macroeconomic factors could be regarded as exogenous factors and several energy factors could be regarded as endogenous factors.Then the result of the error correction model showed that the error correction model shows that the error correction term has a reverse adjustment mechanism in the short period.3.The results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the price of ellowance is most obviously impacted from itself.The second is electricity prices which is slightly higher than coal.But a result is not the same as expected is that the impact of natural gas is very low;Then the use of gray correlation analysis of several factors and the impact of the ellowance price of the overall comparison.Correlation that from high to low is electricity prices,the euro index,coal prices,temperature,precipitation,natural gas prices.The present situation and problems of China’s pilot carbon trading market is analyzed.And taking the difference between EU and China in economic status andmanagement to analyze the enlightenment of EU ETS system to China so that put forward appropriate measures and suggestions for establishing a unified carbon trading market.In view of the current problems exposed,and taking into account the stable development of the carbon trading market,the following aspects should be considered: as soon as possible popularization of carbon trading-related knowledge,strengthen the supervision of enterprises;appropriate adjustment of carbon emissions allocation program should not fully copy the EU ETS ellowance allocation model;The establishment of a unified carbon market should be introduced after the ellowance carry-over mechanism and compensation program in order to strengthen the unified management of the carbon market.Improving and establishing a professional personnel training system,and strive to create high-grade CDM projects to break the obstruction of technical barriers.