Simulation Of Industrial Carbon Emissions In Jilin Province And Carbon Reduction Options Based On LEAP Model

Along with the Climate Change Actions processing,the issue of carbon emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels has received increasing attention.Negotiations on climate change issues have become a game of interests among countries.And the expiration of the second performance period of the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2020.All signatory countries will be faced with the possibility of full participation in emission reduction frameworks.At the same time,based on the requirements of low-carbon development,China and the provinces should understand their own future carbon emission trends and peak situations,then formulate and implement scientific policies for the future of low-carbon development.Therefore,predict the value and time of energy consumption carbon emissions peak,explore the influence of various factors on it has great significance.This paper simulates and analyzes the carbon emission reduction of the industrial sector in Jilin Province.Through in-depth research on the energy intensity and energy structure of Jilin Province's industrial energy consumption,the LEAP model is based on a baseline scenario,an energy conservation scenario,an energy conservation-low carbon scenario,and a low-carbon scenario.The forecast is made by simulating the changes in industrial GDP,the value-added ratios of various industries in the proportion of industrial added value,the changes in energy intensity in various industries,changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions brought about by changes in the proportion of various energy sources in various industries,then select and simulate the carbon emission reduction paths in Jilin Province's industrial sector.The conclusions of the study indicate that the low-carbon scenario reached the peak first,with the peak time at 2020,followed by the energy-saving and low-carbon scenario,the peak time at 2030,and the reference scenario and the energy-saving scenario at the latest,both at 2040.The scenario peak value is between 114.17Mt-181.56 Mt CO2.On this basis,in order to further explore the path of carbon emission reduction in Jilin Province's industrial sector,this study will analyze the industrial GDP,value added by various industries in the proportion of industry,separately analyze the single factor for the energy intensity of each industry and the proportion of each energy consumption in various industries,explore its impact on carbon emissions.The results show that the four factors have impacts on the value and time of carbon emissions,with industrial added value having the greatest impact on the peak value,and the impact on the peak value of each energy consumption of various industries is the least.Therefore,through changing the economic growth mode,appropriately reducing the industrial growth rate,promoting new technologies,reducing the energy intensity of various industries,improving the industrial structure,vigorously developing new low-energy-consuming industries,changing energy use methods,and reducing coal used ratios can reduce the emission and conserve the energy.