Study On The Rapid Prediction Of Sudden Water Pollution Accident In Main Canal Of Shandong Section Of East Route

The East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is a trans basin,long distance,large and comprehensive water diversion project to alleviate the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources in the eastern part of China and support the sustainable development of the national economy and society in this region.Since the construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,water safety and water quality guarantee have been a hot issue.In the middle line project,there has been a large number of researches concentrate in the source and the Beijing section.While in the east line project,the Shandong section,which is an important part,has already carried out the risk assessment of water transportation safety and the simulation of hydrodynamic water quality.In Shandong section,canals are mostly open type,crossing several local traffic roads,and some of the rivers and lakes bear the task of shipping.Therefore,the water conveyance safety is threatened by many potential water pollution accidents.In order to take effective emergency control and disposal measures in case of an emergency,it is necessary to carry out rapid prediction of the sudden water pollution events in the South-to-North Water Transfer project.Literature retrieval shows that,at present,many scholars at home and abroad have established a large number of simulation models with the aid of model software,but all of them need a large amount of basic data,and the operation of the model needs a lot of time.The sudden water pollution accident often happened suddenly,with random and acute.Once the sudden water pollution accident occurs,it is urgent to make a decision,and there is no time to run the simulation model to predict.So the rapid prediction is still an important problem for the scholars at home and abroad to study the sudden water pollution events.At present,there is no model to predict the process of the change of pollutants quickly and accurately.Considering about all the situations above,this paper based on the risk identification of water pollution incident in the main water transfer canal of Shandong section of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,and simulated some typical water pollution accident in different canals of Shandong section.Also based on the transport and transformation of empirical formula of pollution,established a rapid prediction model of sudden water pollution accidents,and determined the parameters of the fast prediction model by using the simulation results of the main channel of the Shandong section of the South-to-North Water Transfer project.Finally,we used the results of computer numerical simulation to test the prediction results of the rapid prediction model.The test results show that the relative error of influence time and influence range predicted by rapid prediction model are 0.52%-4.83%and 0.23%?7.15%,none of them are more than 10%,so we can conclude that the established rapid prediction model can accurately predict the sudden water pollution accidents in the trunk section of the Shandong section of the south to North Water Transfer project.The main research results are as follows:(1)Based on the simulation of the predecessors,the simulation results are processed,and the influence factors are taken into consideration.The law of pollutant transport and transformation is studied,and the regularity of the variation of pollutant concentration along the path and its main influencing factors are analyzed.(2)Combined with the existing laws of transport and transformation of pollutants and water conservancy regulations,the rapid prediction model of sudden water pollution accidents in the Shandong section of South-to-North Water Transfer Project is studied,and the rapid prediction model of the Shandong section of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is set up,and the parameters of the model are determined and the applicability of the method is tested.(3)In order to further verify the reliability of the fast prediction model,the numerical simulation technology is used to analyze the variation of the pollutant concentration and to compare the transport and transformation rules of the pollutants in the fast prediction model.The random burst water pollution accidents are selected and the two methods are used to calculate the pollution,and the accuracy is compared.Error analysis.(4)In order to meet the timeliness requirements of emergency disposal of sudden water pollution accidents and improve the efficiency of prediction,a rapid prediction visualization system for sudden water pollution accidents is developed based on the rapid prediction model.After input system of the parameters of the sudden water pollution accident,the concentration and critical value of the pollutant arriving at the water inlet can be quickly predicted,and the influence time and the influence range of the accident are also predicted.