An Empirical Study On The Relationship Among BRIC Economic Policy,Stock Price And International Oil Price

The BRIC countries(China,India,Brazil,Russia),as representatives of global emerging market countries,have continuously improved their economic strength,and have become important forces that influence global politics,economy and trade.The BRIC countries possess strong economic vitality and active economic policies,while the uncertainties of the economic policies of the BRIC countries increases the risks and fluctuations of the stock markets to a certain extent and hinders the development of the stock markets in these countries.On the other hand,as an irreplaceable energy source in modern industry,oil is the economic lifeblood of various economic powers,and changes in international oil prices will undoubtedly have an important impact on the macroeconomics and even national security of various countries.As global emerging markets,the BRIC countries are more sensitive to oil prices than the developed countries.As important global oil importers and exporters,the BRIC economic policy uncertainty,the international oil market,and the BRIC stock market have strong relationships,even stronger in global economic crisis periods.Hence,we use BRIC countries as study subjects,and analyze the relationships among the BRIC economic policy uncertainty,the international oil market,and the BRIC stock market,comprehensively discriminating the similarities and differences of the stock market of oil importers and exporters.These work will be of great significance to the development and improvement of their stock markets,and to the stable development of macroeconomics.In the past,the academic and the economic circles have used methods such as mean correlation analysis,mean regression and GARCH to study the relationship between economic policy,oil prices and stocks in G7 and western economies,and have achieved certain results.As mentioned earlier,studying the relationship among the three economic factors will accommodate more coupling effects,and will be more conducive to the discovery and exploitation of the relationships.In addition,compared with ordinary mean correlation analysis,quantile correlation research can study variables on different conditional distributions,enabling us to have a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of the dependency relationship.For the above reasons,this thesis explores the inherent relationship among the three economic factors,based on the monthly data that include the three factors' values of the BRIC countries from January 2003 to June 2019.After using the unit root test method to test the stability of the data,this thesis proposes and implements a quantile Granger causality test and a quantile regression analysis to the inter-quantity linkages of the three economic factors.The empirical results show that the crude oil market is the one-way Granger reason for the economic policies of the BRICS countries and the stock market(0.35,0.4 quartiles),and the macroeconomics of the BRIC countries will be impacted and affected by crude oil.At the same time,the interdependence between the three exhibits asymmetry and heterogeneity in different countries and quantiles.The influence degree and style differs depending on the import-export situations of crude oil and the economic volume,economic system,culture,and geopolitics.At the end,this thesis discusses and gives the corresponding investment strategies that international investors should take in response to the economic policies and economic conditions of different countries.