Study On The Ecological Security And Its Spatial-temporal Distribution Of Hubei Province Based On DPSIR Model

With the rapid population growth and the social and economic development,ecological security is the concept put forward in the context of the increasing pressure of human activity on the environment and the increasing contradiction between human and land.It refers to the basis of providing perfect ecological services for human beings and ensuring the safety of human existence in the interaction between human and natural environment.That is,the internal environment of the ecosystem is in a healthy and sustainable state.It contains two meanings:first,whether the internal structure of the natural ecosystem is healthy and stable;second,whether the ecosystem has the ability to bear the pressure of human life.Hubei Province is located in the central part of China,and it is an important province in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.With the construction of Three Gorges Project,the Middle Route Project of South to North Water Diversion Project and Water Diversion from Yangtze River to Han River Project,it has brought a certain negative impact on the ecological environment of Hubei province.It is manifested in the destruction of natural ecology along the Yangtze River,serious flood,serious pollution in the estuarine area and low level of social and economic development in the reservoir area.In order to evaluate the status of ecological security in Hubei Province,we selected 20 indicators,including GDP per capita,population density,fertilizer application and aquaculture area to establishe the evaluation index system of ecological security in Hubei province based on the Driving-force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model(DPSIR model).The ecological security status of Hubei Province and its cities in the years of 1996-2015 was systematically studied,and the problems were diagnosed and the causes of the problems were analyzed.The index weight is determined by entropy weight method based on the collection and standardization of ecological security evaluation data of Hubei and its cities,and the evaluation model is established to calculate the ecological security index of Hubei Province and its cities,and the ecological security index is graded to evaluate the ecological security status of Hubei Province,the closer the index value is to 1,the closer it is to the safe state.Finally,the GM(1,1)grey prediction model is used to predict the development trend of ecological security in Hubei and local cities.The results show that:(1)In 20 years,the ecological security situation in Hubei Province rose from mild early warning to security.The ecological security index rose from 0.439 to 0.704,Among them,the driving-force index decreased from 0.082 to 0.014,the pressure index decreased from 0.195 to 0.077,the state index decreased from 0.112 to 0.098,the impact index increased from 0.025 to 0.337,and the response index increased from 0.026 to 0.177.The impact factor is the biggest contribution factor to the ecological security index increased,the per capita income of farmers,gross output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishing are the key factor affecting the change.(2)In terms of the spatial pattern of ecological security,it is divided into five stages.The time point is 1996,2001,2006,2011,2015.In 1996,7 of the 16 cities in Hubei province were in a state of mild early warning,and they were mainly distributed in the Middle East.Secondly,6 cities are moderate early warning,mainly distributed on the diagonal line in the southeast of Hubei Province,which is connected to Shiyan and Xianning.After 1996,the proportion of severe early-warning cities increased,and 2001 was a year of poor ecological security in Hubei province.The whole central region,including the Shiyan city which located northwest,is in a state of moderate early-warning.The lowest is Xiantao,and the ecological security index is as low as 0.228.Then it began to improve since 2006.By 2011,the city of Shiyan and Qianjiang had been safer.By 2015,all 16 cities were in a state of relatively safe or safe,which was in line with the overall ecological security evaluation results of Hubei province.It shows that the overall ecological security situation in Hubei Province is in a good trend.(3)Using a grey prediction model,it is predicted that the ecological security index of Hubei Province has been increasing steadily for 2016-2020 years.It is estimated that in 2020,the index of ecological security can reach 0.899,which is basically in a very safe area.The prediction of the spatial distribution of ecological security which are the status of 16 cities also presents a continuous upward trend.In addition to Huanggang,Yichang,Shiyan,Huangshi and Xiangyang,the other 11 cities have reached a very safe ideal state theoretically.The change in the state of ecological,security has an inseparable relationship with human activity and the changes in the natural environment itself.For example,the emission of industrial and agricultural pollution,the irrational exploitation of resources,and natural disasters will be the key factors that affect the ecological security of Hubei Province.But at the same time,some response measures,such as raising the rate of wastewater discharge and increasing the development of the third industry,can also improve the ecological security and increase the index of ecological security.Therefore,according to the evaluation results and prediction results,aiming at the current status of ecological security,the corresponding countermeasures and measures for Hubei's ecological security are put forward from aspects of urban planning,industrial structure adjustment,water resources protection and so on.