Study On Assessment And Control Of Water Ecological Security In Xuchang

Water ecological security is an important component of ecological security and an important prerequisite and basis for ensuring ecological security.The construction of water ecological security is not only related to the development of water resources and water environment civilization,but also to the progress and development of economy and society related to water resources and water ecology.Taking Xuchang as an example,this paper uses the framework model of "Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response"(DPSIR)and combines the natural environment and socio-economic status of Xuchang from 2005 to 2017 to construct the evaluation index system of water ecological security.The comprehensive evaluation method combining analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index,calculate the comprehensive index of water ecological security,and evaluate the water ecological security status of Xuchang.On this basis,the grey prediction GM(1,1)model was established to verify the feasibility of the model in the comprehensive evaluation of water ecological security,and the comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security in Xuchang in the next five years was predicted.Finally,according to the results of water ecological security evaluation in Xuchang from 2005 to 2017 and the prediction of water ecological security status in the next five years,the water ecological control measures and suggestions in Xuchang were formulated.The results show that:(1)Based on the DPSIR framework model,a target layer for the water ecological security of Xuchang is constructed,which includes five criteria layers based on driving force,pressure,state,impact and response,and a water ecological security evaluation index system based on 19 evaluation indexes.(2)From 2005 to 2017,the comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security in Xuchang was 0.286?0.299?0.334?0.393?0.406?0.469?0.571?0.643?0.589?0.606?0.671?0.670 and 0.713,respectively.The overall evaluation index of water ecological security showed a rapid upward trend of fluctuation.The assessment level of water ecological security has risen from the risk level in 2005 to the good level in 2017,which indicates that the water ecological security status in Xuchang is relatively good and is constantly improving.(3)Based on the comprehensive evaluation index of water ecological security in Xuchang from 2005 to 2014,the grey prediction GM(1,1)model can be used to predict the comprehensive index of water ecological security effectively.From 2015 to 2020,the forecast results of the comprehensive index of water ecological security in Xuchang are 0.810?0.868?0.930?0.951 and 0.983,respectively.The forecasting results show that the assessment level of water ecological security in Xuchang will rise from a good level in 2017 to a safe level in 2020 and will remain until 2022.The results show that the water ecological security of Xuchang is likely to develop steadily and healthily in the future.(4)Based on the above conclusions,to formulate the regulatory objectives of good water ecological environment,sustainable and healthy development of water ecosystem and stable development of social economy in Xuchang,and the regulation measures and suggestions are formulated from four aspects of water resources,aquatic ecology,economy and society,with a view to providing some reference for the sustainable and healthy development of water ecological security in Xuchang in the future.