Assessment And Prediction On Ecological Security Of Hubei Province Based On The Energy And Ecological Footprint Model

Hubei province is in the hinterland of China, which play a significant role in social and economic development to the rise of the central region and the whole country. Now, natural ecological environment have been affected and destructed, the ecological security has become the main bottleneck of the society and economic development in Hubei province. Therefore, in this paper, in order to promote sustainable development in Hubei, the ecological security is evaluated and predicted.The annual ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint are calculated by the energy and ecological footprint model in Hubei province from2000to2009,The calculation results show that the per capita ecological carrying capacity is from0.274020to0.266646, there is a small range of decline, while the per capita ecological footprint is from4.120451to6.469453, there is in an obviously increasing trend; the ecological footprint of the fossil fuel land increase rapidly, and the rising rate of building lands is faster than waters, cultivated land is in a modest increasing trend, but there is certain wave; grassland and forest land change slowly and is relatively stable. The ecological deficit increased rapidly from-3.84643to-6.20281, and so did ecological stress index, from15.037022to24.26234, the ecological environment condition was under increasing pressure. The results of ecological security assessment are that the ecological environment is in a mild insecure state during2000-2003, and is in moderate insecure state during2004-2008, and is poorer in2009.According to the grey theory GM (1,1) predicting model, the annual ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint are predicted from2010to2019, and the per capita ecological deficit and ecological pressure index are calculated,the prediction results show that the per ecological carrying capacity will be in a downward trend and decrease by0.000792, but the per ecological footprint will increase significantly and increase0.451223every year, ecological deficit will increase0.45201every year and ecological Pressure index will increase1.814134every year, with the rate is slowing down. According to the results of the ecological security assessment, the ecological environment will be poorer, reaching level for5and6, especially, we should pay attention to the ecological environment, which is coming into extremely unsafe condition in2014.Due to growing population and upgrading consumption level urbanization, unreasonable use of resources and so on, the environment in unsafe condition in Hubei province, we should take the following measures:control the population, and raise public awareness of protecting environment; Set up saving resource patterns of production and consumption; Rationally plan and use all sorts of land resources, and improve the use efficiency of land; Save water, and strengthen protection for water resources.