| A series of problems caused by climate change affect the development of our country and even the whole world.In 2010,NDRC first approved the low-carbon pilot projects in a number of provinces and regions and Chongqing as the first low-carbon pilot city,how to develop low Carbon economy,find the path of development of low-carbon economy has great significance.At the same time,according to the national "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" outline,the national response to climate change planning and the "13th Five-Year" plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions require more cities to explore and summarize some laws and experiences of low-carbon development so as to promote them.It is necessary to study the carbon emission effect in Chongqing and summarize the law,which can provide policy suggestions for the government's low-carbon pilot project.(1)Firstly introduce the domestic and international background and research significance of carbon emissions in Chongqing,and take the sustainable development and low-carbon economy as the basis theoretical.Then,it summarizes the research summary at home and abroad,and elaborates the research on three aspects of carbon emission estimation,driving factors and forecasting.(2)The change of land use in Chongqing will be analyzed from the aspects of quantity,dynamics and utilization.The results showed that: from the quantitative point of view,the cultivated land,grassland,other agricultural land,other unused land area has a certain degree of reduction.That is,other agricultural land> other unused land>grassland> cultivated land.The garden,woodland,construction land,water have increased to some extent.That is,forest land> construction land> garden land> water area.From the dynamic attitude,the largest is grassland,reaching 0.0505,followed bygarden> other unused land> other agricultural land> construction land> forest land>water area> cultivated land.From the degree of utilization,land use in Chongqing is between the development and adjustment period changes.(3)Calculate the carbon emission in Chongqing based on the amendment of the estimation model of carbon emissions from land use and related parameters.Cultivated land and forest land have generally increased their carbon uptake,accounting for more than 95% of the total.However,the carbon uptake of forest land is larger than that of cultivated land.However,the changes of carbon uptake in garden land,pasture land,water area and unused land are not obvious,so that the total carbon uptake accounts for less than 5% of total carbon uptake.Land use carbon emissions in Chongqing are mainly from construction land and other agricultural land,of which construction land is the main source of carbon emissions,accounting for more than 94% of total carbon emissions.However,the overall carbon emissions of other agricultural land changed steadily,which was smaller than the carbon emission of construction land.(4)Partial Least-Squares Regression based on the extended STIRPAT model studies the influencing factors and their dynamic changes,and explores the carbon emission law.The results show that for each 1% increase in land use,population size,urbanization rate,per capita GDP,the proportion of the secondary industry and the proportion of the tertiary industry,carbon emissions are increased by 0.478%,0.557%,0.458%,0.577%,0.016 %,0.566%.The increase in energy consumption per unit of GDP and the proportion of the primary industry will increase by 0.518% and 0.474%,respectively.The per capita GDP,the proportion of the tertiary industry,and the size of the population are the main drivers,and land use,urbanization rate,and the proportion of the secondary industry are important drivers.(5)Based on the ARIMA model,it can predict the carbon emissions and GDP changes of Chongqing City in 2020 effectively and reasonably,and predict whether Chongqing will be able to accomplish the specified low-carbon development goals and tasks in 2020. |
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