Analysis On The Determinants And Peaking Paths Of CO₂ Emissions For China's High Energy-consuming Industries

With the intensification of the greenhouse effect,the reduction of the carbon dioxide emission gradually attracts public attention.In our climate agreement,Paris"national self-contribution",the goal is:"China will make its carbon dioxide emissions peak around 2030 and strive to achieve as soon as possible".Industrial carbon emissions account for the vast majority of China's total carbon emissions and high-energy-consuming industries contribute more than 80%of industrial total carbon emissions.To achieve target emission and to promote high-energy-consuming industries,carbon reduction is the only way to go.Therefore,it is important to study the influential factors,the extent and direction of carbon emissions in high-energy-consuming industries and to explore the evolution of carbon emissions in the future under different circumstances.In this dissertation,we build a theoretical model on identifying the determinants of CO2 emissions by incorporating the energy-augmenting technical progress in the analytical framework.Based on this work,the growth rates of CO2 emissions in China's six high energy-consuming industries are decomposed into four aspects including energy mix effect,scale effect,factor substitution effect,and energy-saving technical progress effect;and the peak paths of each industry's CO2 emissions are also studied with scenario analysis method.The results indicate that:(1)the scale effect plays a dominant role in increasing the CO2 emissions for all the industries,especially during the tenth five-year plan;on the contrary,energy-saving technical progress effect and factor substitution effect have limited the increase of industrial CO2 emissions to a certain extent;the energy mix effect is extremely minor.(2)The energy-saving technical progress is the most effective way to reduce the CO2 emissions for four industries although the effect decreased gradually,and the rest two mainly rely on factor substitution effect.(3)In the high emission scenario,the total CO2 emissions of the six high energy-consuming industries continue to grow rapidly,and it is difficult to reach the peak before 2030;in the medium and low emission scenarios,the total CO2 emissions of China's high energy-consuming industry will peak around 2017 and 2023,respectively.(4)The results of Monte Carlo simulation show that the total CO2 emissions of the six high energy-consuming industries are most likely to reach the peak at 2024 and highly possible to peak before 2030.(5)To make comparison between the two methods,the large emission and small emission in scenario analysis are less possible to occur according to Monte Carlo simulation.The carbon emissions of the six industries are more likely to follow the medium-emission forecast in scenario analysis.In this case,it is obliged to eliminate the high-energy-consuming industries,to upgrade them,and to innovate in techniques.Especially the technical innovation plays essential roles to make the domestic economy less extensive,more intensive,and to promote the efficiency of energy usage.So the energy form with less carbon would be achieved while the carbon emission reduces.