Energy-Saving And CO₂ Emission Reduction Potential In Key Energy-Consuming Industries

China’s cement,steel and electricity production accounts for about 50%of the world’s total production.They are the industries with the higher energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions.Due to the rapid economic development and the rapid growth of energy demand caused by the growth of energy-intensive industries,the fossil fuel-based energy consumption of China has brought serious greenhouse gas emissions.China is still in the process of industrialization and modernization,and economic development will continue to promote China’s energy demand growth.In the short term,fossil fuel-based energy structure will not change in China.Recently,the government has paid more and more attention to resource environment protection and sustainable development.In order to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions,the government and relevant departments have issued a series of related policies.Due to the characteristics of "rich coal,poor oil and less gas" in China,the development of key energy-consuming industries under the "new economic normal" is increasingly restricted by resources,energy and environment.Therefore,the process of energysaving and emission reduction in key energy-consuming industries cannot be delayed.This paper analyzes energy conservation and CO2 reduction in China’s key energyconsuming industries—steel,cement,and coal-fired power industry.Previous studies have studied production,energy consumption,emissions,and technical economics independently and lack comprehensive and reasonable analytical methods.In order to study the energy saving and emission reduction potential of key energy-consuming industries from 2015 to 2050,a comprehensive model was established which included energy consumption and emission prediction,technical economic analysis and sensitivity analysis.The bottom-up modeling approach was used to analyze energy consumption and CO2 emissions in three industries.The reference scenario(REF),the structure adjustment scenario(STA),the technology improvement scenario(TEI)and the integrated scenario(INT)were used to explore the influence of production and structure adjustment,technology improvement and integrated factors.The results show that production is the most important factor in energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction.In the above scenarios,the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of one specific industry are different,but the trend is all the same.The best energy saving and emission reduction effects are achieved due to the effect of production change,structural adjustment and technology improvement in the integrated scenario(INT).The CSC model was used to the three key industrial industries.Energy saving and emissions reduction potential analysis and cost efectiveness analysis are conducted for advanced technologies.When the discount rate is 15%,3.01 GJ/t will be saved and 398.22 kgCO2/t will be reduced by 35 energy-saving technologies in iron and steel industry.1.45 GJ/t will be saved and 139.57 kgCO2/t will be reduced by 36 energy-saving technologies in cement industry.4960.31 kJ/kWh will be saved and 0.43 kgCO2/kWh will be reduced by 35 energysaving technologies in coal-fired industry industry.Sensitivity analysis shows that low discount rates,high energy prices,low investment costs,and high cost subsidies can play a positive role in technology promotion.