Study On Peak Prediction Of Carbon Emissions And Countermeasure In China Based On System Dynamics

Global warming caused by excessive carbon dioxide emissions threatens the sustainable development of human society,and carbon emission reduction has become a common problem faced by international community.As the largest carbon emissions country in the world,the reduction pressure for China is increasing.Especially in the circumstance of the absence of United States in Paris agreement,China should shoulder the important reduction task.In order to carry out the carbon emission reduction work smoothly,it is necessary for China to know about the influencing factors of carbon emissions and appropriate path of carbon emissions reduction.In order to explore the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China,this paper first constructed the Kaya identity including population,economy,industry structure,energy intensity,energy structure and carbon emissions coefficient from the perspective of terminal energy consumption of three industries.Then,the influence factors of carbon emissions were analyzed by LMDI model during 2000 to 2015,and the contribution degree of each influence factor was measured.The analysis of influencing factors showed that economic size and population size were driving factors of carbon emissions during the study period.In addition,the optimization of industrial structure has negative driving effect on carbon emissions in the study period.Although Energy intensity and energy structure drove carbon emissions in some years,they hindered the energy carbon emissions in general.Based on the analysis results of LMDI and the modeling theory of system dynamics,this paper divided the carbon emissions system into six subsystems and analyzed the causal relationship between subsystems.And then a system dynamics model of carbon emissions peak was established to reflect the carbon emissions in china.In order to verify the practicability of the model,the simulation analysis and validity test were carried out.In order to explore the optimization development path of carbon emissions in the future,this paper first set nine different carbon emissions development scenarios for China during 2016 to 2050 on the basis of economic,population,urbanization,industrial structure,investment in fixed assets,the energy structure and energy intensity.And then this paper predicted the peak and its occurrence time of carbon emissions and the abatement rate of carbon intensity in nine development scenarios.The prediction result indicated that the optimal carbon emissions development path appeared in the OD2 development scenario,and China could reach its carbon emissions reduction goal in the OD2 development scenario.The seven indicators in this scenario kept the baseline adjustment speed in the OD2 development scenario.If the develop rate of economy,population and urbanization will be faster than the benchmark rate in the future,China must take more aggressive carbon emissions reduction measures to achieve carbon emissions reduction targets.Finally,low-carbon economy development was recommended as an optimized carbon emissions reduction method according to the research of this article,and some suggestions were provided for government to implement the low-carbon economy development strategy in China.