Study On Prediction And Control Of Carbon Emission Peak Value In Jiangsu Province

With the increase of population and the expansion of economic scale,the environmental problems caused by energy consumption have gradually attracted the attention of the international community.As the world's largest carbon emitter,China is under increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions.Jiangsu province is one of the provinces with strong economic development in China.In order to ensure that the targets set by the Jiangsu provincial government are met as scheduled,it is crucial to understand the factors affecting the carbon emission in Jiangsu province,the time and size of the possible peak of carbon emission in Jiangsu province.This paper takes the carbon emission peak of Jiangsu province as the research object,summarizes the basic situation of population,economy and social development of Jiangsu province,and then calculates the carbon emission to clarify the carbon emission change of Jiangsu province from 1996 to 2016.To explore the influence factors of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province,this paper on the basis of Kaya equation,and LMDI method was adopted to divide the change of carbon emission in Jiangsu province from 1996 to 2016 into seven stages to calculate the contribution rate of different factors to carbon emission in each stage.The results show that the increase of economic level and population size have a positive effect.The continuous upgrading of industrial structure and low carbon on energy intensity are the two major factors restraining the wanton growth of carbon emissions.The change of energy consumption structure is relatively small,and the carbon intensity fluctuates greatly in different stages,which means that the carbon emission reduction technology will decrease with the increase of technology level.Based on LMDI model decomposition results and combining the theory of system dynamics model,the carbon emissions large system is divided into economic subsystem,energy subsystem,environmental subsystem,social subsystem and policy subsystem.On the basis of analyzing the causality of each subsystem,the system dynamics model of carbon emission in Jiangsu province was established,and the validity of the established SD model was tested.The results show that the model can reflect the actual situation of the research interval in Jiangsu province and can be used as a prediction model for the future carbon emission peak.In order to find out the optimal path of energy saving and emission reduction in Jiangsu Province,this paper based on the decomposition results of LMDI model and SD model to predict.Six indicators including economic development,population,urbanization level,industrial structure,energy structure and science and technology investment from 2017 to 2050 were set as parameters at three development rates of high speed,benchmark and low speed,and nine development scenarios were set to predict the carbon emissions of Jiangsu province and the time and size of the peak under each scenario.The predicted results show that the ld2 development scenario is the best development path for Jiangsu province.The economic and social development,the population remains the benchmark scenario forward and curb carbon emissions factors such as industrial structure,energy structure,investment in science and technology is developing change rapidly.To ensure economic growth in the current benchmark,society,population,urbanization development pattern is relatively easy,but the inhibition of carbon emission factors of high-speed growth needs to formulate a series of stricter emissions control system of Jiangsu province.Finally,based on the above analysis results,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures for Jiangsu province's energy conservation and emission reduction.It should adopt low-carbon economy and green development mode for energy conservation and emission reduction,and put forward specific Suggestions according to each subsystem to improve the theory of low-carbon economy development.