Simulation Based Interval-Stochastic Programming Methods For Ecosystem Planning

In recent years,in order to solve the contradiction between socioeconomic development and land resources supply,large numbers of reclamation activities have been carried out in our country.Reclamation activities have brought about a series of ecological environment problems while meeting the socioeconomic development.Thus,regional ecosystem planning and management for reclamation area can effectively promote the sustainable development of ecosystem and social economy.However,due to the comprehensive and complex characteristics of the ecosystem,such an ecosystem planning is complicated with uncertainties,which bring many difficulties and challenges to management decision makers.Therefore,combining system analysis method and uncertainty optimization technique carries out the research on the regional ecosystem planning and management of reclamation area.Firstly,Monte Carlo simulation based interval chance-constrained programming model(MC-ICCP)integrated with ecosystem service value assessment measures is developed and used for planning regional ecosystem under uncertainty in the City of Zhuhai.Secondly,based on ecosystem service value assessment,interval-parameter full-infinite joint probabilistic constraints programming regional ecosystem planning management model(IFJP-REM)is established for frequent reclamation area of Zhuhai,Guangdong province.MC-ICCP model results show that percentage of the forestry and grass coverage is a key factor in balancing regional economic development and ecological environment protection,based on the differences in considered ecosystem service value assessment methods in the model and the level of risk in the system decision-making process.Moreover,IFJP-REM model explores the impact of the joint probability level of different ecological factors and the difference of single level on the ecosystem management,and obtain the ecosystem service value benefits and corresponding land use patterns under different scenarios in Zhuhai City.It is concluded that the vegetation coverage is of great significance to the planning and management of regional ecosystem,and the low-risk-level conservative development strategy has important implications for the sustainable development of the region.Therefore,MC-ICCP and IFJP-REM model provide scientific and reasonable land resource allocation decision alternatives and maintain sustainable development social economy of Zhuhai.