Spatial Difference Analysis And Policy Simulation Of Carbon Emission In Chinese Urban Agglomeration Based On Decision-Making Support

Nowadays,the energy and environment situation in China has become more severe,the contradiction between economic development and environmental deterioration still exist.We first analysis the spatial differences of carbon emission by GWR model from a coordinated growth perspective based on the idea of integrated management.The change of economic and political atmosphere determines spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission.Highly interconnected pattern of city development has brought about greater interdependence of politics and economy.A complex and fast-changing social structure has present new challenges and opportunity to deal with carbon emission.In this essay,the author will forecast the spatial tendency of carbon emission by CGE model and GWR model,and simulate the variation of spatial distribution trend in different policies.We hope the essay will provide a new idea and direction to the relevant area.The first and second chapters are the summary of the literature.In the 19 th CPC National Congress,President Xi Jinping has put forward that Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets.In this point,the concept of urban sustainable development in the context of global climate change is explained,which aims to realize the coordinated development of energy,economy and environment,and it's the basis of this thesis.Combined with the domestic and foreign related research results,this paper made a summary of the past research on carbon emissions and policies.Based on this,we put forward the research ideas and methods of this paper.In order to make it easier for readers to understand the content of this study,the GWR and CGE models used in the research are also introduced.In the third chapter,on the issue of sample city selection,13 low carbon pilot cities in 7 urban agglomerations are selected as the research object of this paper with the consideration of urban spatial distribution pattern and the characteristics of urban development.Then we made a brief analysis of carbon emissions in 13 cities.On the basis of KAYA formula,this paper analyzes the correlation between 11 factors and carbon dioxide emissions.Finally,we choose urbanization rate,industrial structure,energy intensity and the degree of foreign trade as the main explanatory variables for the study of carbon dioxide emissions.We hope lay a foundation for further research in this chapter.In the fourth chapter,through the application of GWR model,this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal differences of influencing factors of carbon emissions in sample cities.The results showed the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions presents an N shaped relationship and the impact on that of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Northeast China Region is more significant.There was a negative correlation between Industrial structure and carbon emissions,but the influence of industrial structure is decreasing from year to year.The spatial distribution of the impact of energy intensity on carbon emissions appears two displacements.The impact of foreign trade is more significant in PRD urban agglomeration and Sichuan-Chongqing region than that in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.In fifth chapter,by constructing a General Equilibrium Model of China's energy economic environment,this paper analyzes the forecast of economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in the sample region under the benchmark scenario and the policy scenario during 2017-2050.The forecast results show that the total GDP of each region is rising,but the increasing rate is decreasing.There has a great difference in urbanization development between different regions,and some developed regions even appear the phenomenon of anti-urbanization.The industrial structure and energy intensity of different regions showed a decreasing trend,while the structure of foreign trade and the trend of carbon dioxide emissions also showed great regional differences.Through the simulation analysis of industrial structure policy,it is found that the increase of third industry investment makes the GDP increasing obviously in each region,and the carbon dioxide emissions are lower than the baseline scenario.Reducing investment in the secondary sector can reduce carbon dioxide emissions compared to the baseline scenario,but it will have a negative impact on economic development.The influence of RMB exchange rate policy on economy and carbon emission is reflected in the change of foreign trade structure.An increase in the RMB exchange rate will reduce China's total export trade,slowing GDP growth,but it also can reduce carbon dioxide emissions.A lower RMB exchange rate will benefit the development of China's export trade and increase the total amount of GDP,but it will increase carbon emissions to a certain extent.Technical investment has a significant positive effect on the improvement of energy efficiency and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the sample region.In chapter 6,we combine the GWR model with the CGE model,and predict the spatial trend of the fifth chapter.We have simulated the spatio-temporal evolution trend of the factors affecting carbon emissions in 2017-2050 in the sample areas under the baseline scenario and the policy scenario,and put forward corresponding policy recommendations accordingly.The simulation results show that the spatial distribution trend of the factors affecting carbon emissions is basically similar to that of 2000-2050 in the baseline scenario.Due to the influence of the transfer of trade center,the spatial distribution of foreign trade structure has taken place a significant shift.The impact of industrial structure policy on carbon emissions in northern cities is significantly higher than that in southern regions,and the spatial distribution trend of carbon dioxide influencing factors has shifted from northern to southern regions during the period of 2035-2050.The change of foreign trade structure under RMB exchange rate adjustment has a greater impact on carbon dioxide emissions in the southern region,and different RMB exchange rate policies will make the spatial distribution trend of carbon emissions influence factors change in different degrees.Generally speaking,the technical level input has a great influence on the spatial distribution trend of the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the northern region.Appropriate technical input will help to reduce the carbon emissions in the north,but too much technical input will not necessarily bring the expected results.The eighth chapter gives a conclusion and discussion of the whole paper.