| Since the Industrial Revolution,human production activities have intensified,and a large amount of fossil fuels have been burned,which has caused a sharp increase in the content of greenhouse gases in the air,which has led to global warming and a series of environmental problems that have hindered the sustainable development of human society.After the reform and opening up,China's economy has developed rapidly,industrialization and urbanization have been greatly accelerated,and carbon emissions have also increased.As the main artery of China's national economic development,the transportation industry not only provides an important carrier for population and material flows in social production activities,but also creates prerequisites for social and economic development,but its carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing rapidly.Against the background of increasing global warming,as a responsible big country,China actively participates in international negotiations and cooperation on climate change,continuously explores low-carbon development paths,and does its best to reduce global warming,then make a promise at the meeting in Paris in 2015 :reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 2030 by 60%-65% compared with 2005.As the world's largest carbon-emitting country,China is facing enormous pressure to reduce emissions while promoting economic development.The transportation sector is China's second-largest carbon dioxide emission sector and should shoulder the major responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,studying the growth mechanism of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry and developing low-carbon transportation are crucial to China's emission reduction mission.This study is based on the data of various energy consumption of the transportation industry terminals in 1997-2017 in 30 provinces(municipality,autonomous region)(except Tibet Autonomous Region,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan),using the "top-down" method,the carbon emissions of transportation in various provinces and cities over the years have been calculated,and the temporal and spatial changes were visually described and analyzed for regional differences.Based on the improved STIRPAT model,using ridge regression,regression analysis of the relevant factors that affect China's transportation industry carbon emissions.The results of the study show that:(1)The carbon emissions of China's transportation industry have shown an overall upward trend during the time-series changes.The number has increased from 14,926,450 tons in 1997 to 99,908,900 tons in 2017,and there are obvious phase distribution characteristics of the change: The first phase: 1997-2004,carbon emissions remained low and increased at a high rate;the second stage: 2005-2012,carbon emissions maintained a high and medium-speed growth;the third stage: 2013-2017,carbon emissions maintained a high and low-speed growth.(2)From the perspective of various types of energy carbon emissions: during the study period,the number of eight types of energy carbon emissions have increased,but their growth rate and proportion have changed: the growth rate of raw coal carbon emissions is the smallest,and its proportion has also continued to show The downward trend;the emissions of gasoline,kerosene and diesel accounted for the vast majority of the total.Among them,the carbon emissions of diesel accounted for the largest proportion of the total emissions.The reason may be that diesel is the most widely used in the field of transportation and The carbon emission factor is relatively large;the average carbon emission of gasoline is second only to diesel,and the carbon emission of gasoline continues to increase,but its proportion continues to decrease;the proportion of carbon emissions of kerosene is second to diesel and gasoline.With the improvement of the level and the pursuit of high efficiency,the amount of kerosene consumed by civil aviation will increase significantly,and the carbon emissions of kerosene will also increase;the carbon emissions of natural gas and electricity continue to increase,but the proportion will be the smallest.Policy support,the demand for electricity and natural gas in the transportation sector will continue to increase,and its carbon emissions will also increase.(3)From the perspective of the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in the transportation industry: the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the three major regions of China are very uneven,and the regional differences are more obvious: the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the eastern region have always been significantly higher than the other two during the study period Regions,and the gap with the central and western regions is gradually widening;while the central and western regions,although the regional economic advantages are not significant,in the subsequent development process,with the continuous support and improvement of policies,the central and western regions follow up The efficiency may be higher.From the perspective of the spatial distribution of provinces and cities: Guangdong province's carbon emissions are always ahead of other provinces and cities,while Ningxia and Qinghai's transportation carbon emissions are always at the lowest level in the country.(4)From the perspective of regional differences: the absolute difference in carbon emissions of the transportation industry among various provinces and cities in China shows an increasing trend year by year;while the relative difference in carbon emissions of the transportation industry between provinces and cities shows a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.Under the two indicators of per capita carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,the total regional differences are caused by intra-regional differences,and the total regional difference of per capita carbon emissions is greater than the total regional difference of carbon emission intensity;from the perspective of interregional differences,The regional differences in per capita carbon emissions are more significant,and are more reflective of the larger differences in carbon emissions from the transportation industry in China.From the perspective of intraregional differences,the eastern region has the largest intraregional difference and the largest contribution rate,compared with the other two The regional development is even more uneven.(5)From the analysis of influencing factors: This study obtained six main influencing factors that affect the carbon emissions of China's transportation industry through screening,namely population size,carbon emissions per capita,carbon emission intensity,passenger and freight turnover,urbanization rate and transportation Infrastructure investment,the impact of various factors on the carbon emissions of China's transportation industry have a significant positive effect;and the population size has the most direct impact on the growth of transportation carbon emissions,with the largest impact;compared with the impact of population size,The other five factors have a weaker effect on the promotion of China's transportation carbon emissions. |
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