Study On The Economic Development Model Of Wuhan Under The Constraint Of Atmospheric Environmental Carrying Capacity

The compound air pollution characteristics have emerged,due to the dual influence of coal-smoking pollution and vehicle exhaust pollution,seriously restricting economic development and endangering human health.The contradiction between atmospheric environment and urban development has become increasingly prominent,so it is of great importance to choice the right development model of Wuhan.Taking the Wuhan city as an example,the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity is evaluated firstly and problem of improving the atomospheric environment is identified.Then System Dynamics Model of atmospheric environmental carrying capacity is constructed.Ultimately,different scenarios were designed to explore the threshold of atmospheric environmental carrying capacity,and optimization strategies are proposed based on the result.The main task and conclusion as follows:?1?Evalution index system of air environmental carrying capacity is established based on PSR Model and Principal Component Analysis,determining index weight using Entropy Method,after that Variable Fuzzy Assessment is used to analyse atmospheric environmental carrying capacity from 2005 to 2014.The results show that the current atmospheric environment in Wuhan is overloaded because of the environment pressure is increasing,so the development mode needs to be adjusted.?2?The system dynamics model is constructed,basing on systematic analysis of the relationship between socioeconomic development and compound air pollution,furthermore the effectiveness of model is examined,which show that the model has strong robustness and can meet the needs of research.?3?Through simulating atmospheric environmental carrying capacity between 2016and 2030 in different development models,it is found that model four is the best choice.The cumulative emission of SO₂ and NO_x from 2016 to 2030 are 1.3389 million ton and1.8247 million ton in model one,1.5275million ton and 2.0804 million ton in model two,0.9272 million ton and 1.2881 million ton in model three,1.1073 million ton and 1.6414million ton in model four.?4?In model four,the research outcomes indicates that the atmospheric environmental quality reaches national secondary reference in 2029,when the cumulative emission,from 2016 to 2029,of SO₂ and NO_x cannot exceed 1.0417 million ton and1.5701 million ton.In 2029,the supporting role of atmospheric environment to social economic development should be controlled,and the capacity of GDP,motor vehicle population,the population,coal consumption and urban built-up area are 6185 billion yuan,4.90 million,9.32 million,73.54 million ton and 947.55 km².Adjusting energy structure,controlling traffic pollution and end-of-pipe treatment are proposed as optimizing strategy.