The Relationship Between CO₂ Emission And Electricity Consumption Of China Based On Panel Data

Energy consumption and air pollution are main problem of the word faced.As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emission country,China actively takes on the corresponding responsibility and implement the"United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda"and the"Paris Agreement".We work with the international society to improve the global energy governance system,promote the formation of a new green low-carbon development pattern.This paper aims to study the interaction between CO₂ emission,population size,GDP,energy intensity and the ratio of electricity consumption and terminal energy consumption,so that we can provide theoretical support for China’s development of low-carbon economy.Firstly,the paper summarized the relevant research carried out by other scholars at home and abroad,therefore we can find the emphases of predecessors’research and put forward the innovation of this paper.Secondly,the present situation of population,GDP,energy consumption and CO₂ emission in China is briefly analyzed,which will lay a solid foundation for the empirical analysis of below.In order to study the relationship between the variables,this paper conducted an empirical study using the panel data of 30 provinces in China covering the period from 1997 to 2015,Due to the availability of data,data of the Tibet Autonomous Region,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan are not included.The main research include unit root test,cointegration test,vector error correction model and Granger causality test.Finally,according to the policy of China,we made some consumption for each variable.Based on the result of the parameters estimation,the trend of CO₂ emission in China from 2016 to 2020 is forecasted and analyzed.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables.The effects of population size,GDP,energy intensity and electricity consumption on CO₂ emissions are significant,and population size,GDP and energy intensity are positively correlated with CO₂ emissions,while electricity consumption are negatively related with CO₂ emissions.The results of the panel error correction model show that each variable can be pulled back to a equilibrium state after the occurrence of fluctuation.The results of the Granger causality test show that there are bidirectional causality between the CO₂ emission and the ratio of electricity consumption and terminal energy consumption,CO₂ emissions and energy intensity and power consumption and energy intensity,and there are unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to CO₂ emissions,and unidirectional causal relationship from electricity consumption and energy intensity to GDP.However,there is no causal relationship between population and CO₂ emissions,the ratio of electricity consumption and terminal energy consumption,energy intensity,GDP.The forecast analysis indicate that China’s CO₂ emissions will decline in the next few years,but the forecasting method in this paper may not be accurate and the prediction results will be erroneous.Finally,we comprehensively analyzed the results of the paper and put forward policy recommendations for China’s energy-saving and emission reduction.