Analysis Of Enterprise Production And Carbon Resource Allocation Scheme Selection Based On Simulation

Governments are seeking various ways to control greenhouse gas emissions in the face of global warming.Cap-and-Trade(C&T)is one of the recognized initiatives.To mitigate climate change and achieve the goal of carbon dioxide reduction,China,as the world's largest developing country and the second largest economy in the world,is actively joining the ranks of the global carbon emission reduction,and shoulders the responsibilities of a great power.At present,the world's successful regional carbon emissions trading market has the European emissions trading exchange,the British emissions trading and so on.In 2013,China has also launched pilot operation of the emissions trading market in 7 cities such as Shenzhen,Shanghai and Beijing.As a main body of carbon trading market,manufacturing enterprises are the main points of this research.Under the C&T conditions,the government issued a certain amount of carbon dioxide emission quota to the enterprises every year.If the carbon emissions of the enterprises exceed the quota,and the corresponding measures are not taken to offset their emissions,they will be fined.The traditional enterprise in the face of a short period of time to the level of carbon emissions reduced to carbon quota under the circumstances,will consider two strategies:(1)one is to buy carbon carbon market,but the carbon price changes in real time,when the enterprise purchase,purchase amount,and purchase carbon decision facing the market the carbon price volatility and uncertainty,are to be considered when making decisions;(2)the other is replaced by the green raw materials,the use of new energy,the introduction of energy-saving equipment,the introduction of production process optimization of green technology projects to reduce emissions level.However,these projects have the characteristics of large initial investment,long period,and the uncertainty of the actual period of time exceeding the surplus time.How to identify uncertain factors and how to make effective production and carbon resource allocation decisions under the influence of uncertain factors is an urgent problem for manufacturing enterprises under C&T.In order to solve the above problems,this study using the method of computer simulation,with the manufacturing enterprises as the main object of study,through the establishment of development with the discrete event simulation model base representation,good robustness,behavior and logic in-depth characterization of manufacturing enterprises in the production and carbon resource allocation decision-making process,effectively characterize and analyze the in the process of uncertain effect and influence factors.Secondly,considering the different types of decision makers,based on the benchmark model,we depict the different behavior characteristics and logic of different decision makers,and build a conservative strategy simulation model and a positive strategy simulation model.Finally,we compare and analyze three systems with different structures,so as to get effective suggestions and Countermeasures for enterprises in the process of carbon resource allocation.