The Influence Mechanism Of Trade Openness On Carbon Emissions In Jiangsu Province

Since the new century,the rise of economic globalization has made the global economy develop rapidly,but at the same time,there are also a series of problems,such as the shortage of energy resources,the irrational industrial structure and the deterioration of the ecological environment.As a big province of China,Jiangsu province has achieved great success in economic growth by relying on its natural regional advantages and policy support,and relying on attracting and utilizing foreign capital as the focus of the export-oriented strategy.However,while maintaining rapid economic growth,the industrial structure dominated by high energy consumption and high emissions has become the constraint factor of economic transformation and development in Jiangsu.The purpose of the paper is to make an empirical study of this problem through the construction of the model and the historical data.From the angle of combining the internal and external effects of the economy,on the basis of verifying the significance of the relationship,the influence mechanism of the trade opening on carbon emissions in Jiangsu province is discussed and analyzed.And combined with the environmental control policy the 13 th five-year plan,in order to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction,from the perspective of regional trade opening in Jiangsu Province,for the sustainable development of the economy in the province in the future.Therefore,the empirical part of the paper will be progressively studied from the following four aspects::1.referring to the previous research results,the article selects appropriate index factors and uses factor analysis model to measure and calculate Jiangsu's trade openness.At the same time,based on the kaya model,paper calculated the actual carbon emissions of Jiangsu in the past fifteen years and compared and analyzed the development status of the two variables.2.on the basis of the index measurement,the grey correlation analysis is carried out on the significance of the relationship between trade openness and carbon emissions in Jiangsu province.Through the construction of the grey system prediction model,to carry out the forecast and analysis of the trade openness and the total amount of carbon emissions under unconstrained planning in the next ten years of Jiangsu province.3.on the basis of the relationship saliency and the extended Kaya identity,the carbon emissions in Jiangsu province are factored through the logarithmic LMDI.The main factors are the dependence on foreign trade,the energy carbon emission intensity,energy efficiency,the per capita GDP and the total population,and the contribution percentage of the factors to the factors.At the same time,this article will compare and analyze the contribution ratio of various factors.4.on the basis of factor decomposition,the system dynamic simulation model is further constructed to expand the influencing factors of carbon emissions.The article integrates the subsystems of Jiangsu's economic development,energy consumption,social population,ecological environment and government regulation into the same research framework,to clarify the coupling relationship among the elements of the system,and quantify the impact mechanism of trade openness on carbon emissions.And the scenario hypothesis is put forward to carry out the policy simulation through Vensim software.Finally,we draw a conclusion and put forward reasonable policy suggestions from the aspects of trade angle,energy consumption and pollution control in view of the policy of Jiangsu's carbon emission reduction target under the background of 13 th five-year plan.