| The reform and opening up has experienced 40 years of history,and China's economic development has achieved remarkable results.The extensive development of the energy industry has indeed added a strong impetus to the economic "train",but excessive dependence on low-cost,high-emission coal has increased the damage to the environment.With the increasing awareness of environmental protection,in 2013,China proposed "the atmosphere ten" for atmospheric environmental protection.In 2017,it proposed the concept of "blue sky defense war".Specifically,by reducing the proportion of consumption of coal,improving the clean utilization of coal,low-emissions reform of coal-fired power plants,and energy structure adjustment,the aim is to reduce emissions of atmospheric environmental pollutants and thereby achieve green sustainable development of regional economic development..From a national perspective,according to relevant data released by the Chinese Academy of Engineering,in 2013-2017,the national emissions of sulfur dioxide,nitrogen oxides and primary particulate matter decreased by 14.93 million tons,561 tons and 4.08 million tons,respectively,with a reduction of 59%and 20%respectively.%,29%.The PM2.5 concentration in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 34.3%.Although the results have been remarkable,the environmental problems in the Yangtze River Delta region cannot be ignored,which makes the reform of the regional energy structure imperative.In view of the current energy use situation,China's coal accounts for up to 70%of the energy consumption structure,making it necessary to find alternative energy sources for coal.In the short term,the transformation of transporting coal into transporting electricity as a strategy for energy structure adjustment is essential for pollution control.In 2017,China Power Grid will launch two "three west" areas—the Yangtze River Delta UHV transmission line,in order to open the "three west"area to the Yangtze River Delta region.The implementation of more policies provides a realistic basis.However,due to the differences in resource endowment,economic base and input-output structure between the "Three West" region and the Yangtze River Delta,their respective environmental tolerance and economic endurance are significantly different.This makes certain contradictions between environmental protection and economic development across regions,and may even increase the risk of increased pollution.This makes the practical and feasible"transportation of coal to power" strategy research in the economic-environment-people's livelihood composite field has great practical needs.This paper uses the time series method to estimate the energy output and energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta and the "Three Wests".Exogenous variables such as total factor productivity were estimated by means of historical simulation methods.Based on the two,the dynamic CGE model method is constructed to simulate the economic and environmental changes in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2017 to 2021 under different coal-to-transmission ratios.And determine the reasonable proportion of coal transportation and transmission for the Yangtze River Delta emission reduction targets,and simulate the environmental pollution and economic development changes in the "Three West" area under a reasonable ratio.Based on this,combined with environmental taxation,it simulates the environmental protection tax quota suitable for the "Three West" region.The main structure of this paper is as follows:The first chapter is the introduction,mainly introduces the background of the topic selection,sorts out relevant literature at home and abroad,and expounds the innovation and deficiency of this paper.The second chapter introduces the current situation of energy production,consumption and transportation in the "Three West" region and the Yangtze River Delta region.By analyzing the status quo,it is judged the feasibility of the"conveying coal to power transmission" policy in the two regions.Chapter 3 builds a computable general equilibrium model based on energy-labor-capital-technology dynamics.It mainly involves three parts:data preprocessing,exogenous parameter estimation and model construction.Combined with historical simulation and measurement methods,the economic parameters such as total factor productivity change,energy production and consumption related to the "Three West" region and the Yangtze River Delta region are estimated and predicted.Chapter 4 evaluates the simulations of different coal-to-electricity ratios in the Yangtze River Delta based on the established dynamic model.The evaluation system is divided into economic development,atmospheric governance and residents' welfare.The GDP,government revenue,and SO2 emissions are It consists of seven indicators:CO2 emissions,PM2.5,social welfare and average wage rate.When the economy is not affected by the policy,that is,when the ratio of coal to power transmission is 0%,it is used as a reference system to compare with various indicators under different coal transmission ratios.The results show that from the perspective of time series simulation,during the simulation period,GDP,government revenue,average wage rate and residents' welfare in the Yangtze River Delta region increased,and air pollutant emissions decreased year by year.From the perspective of cross-section simulation data,in the same year,compared with the baseline simulation period,the greater the proportion of transmission,the less air pollutant emissions,but the loss of GDP,government revenue,average wage rate and residents' welfare.In this paper,the reasonable range of coal-to-transmission and transmission is determined for the simulation of the Yangtze River Delta region.From the perspective of atmospheric environmental management,the transmission ratio reaches 60%-99%,and PM2.5 can reach the national environmental secondary standard.From the perspective of economic development and residents' welfare,economic stability can be basically maintained within the range of 0%-90%of transmission.If we consider the three aspects of economic development,environmental governance and residents' welfare,the transmission ratio is 60%-90%,which can basically meet the common needs.Based on the conclusions of Chapter 4,Chapter 5 simulates the GDP,government revenue,SO2 emissions,CO2 emissions,PM2.5,and the "three west"regions in the interval corresponding to 60-90%of the Yangtze River Delta transmission.Social Welfare.As for the increase in power exports in the "Three West" region,all economic indicators have increased compared with the base period,and the pollution indicators have also increased accordingly.Further,this paper takes the "Three West" area under the 60%transmission ratio in the Yangtze River Delta as an example,and adds environmental protection tax under the coal-to-transmission and transmission policy,simulating the change of various indicators under the condition of 1.2-12 yuan/pollution equivalent tax..The results show that the greater the tax,the more obvious the environmental governance effect,but the corresponding economic indicators are also relatively reduced.According to the analysis above,Chapter 6 proposes to further increase the proportion of power transmission in the "Three West" region,enhance the long-distance transmission capacity of the "Three West" region,and accelerate the construction of coal-electric energy bases in the "Three West" region.It will also strengthen the air pollution control in the "Three West" area,strengthen the pollution control of solid waste such as coal slag in the "Three West" area,and strengthen the proposals for industrial structure transformation and upgrading in the"Three West" area and the Yangtze River Delta region. |
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