Research On The Early-warning Of Petroleum Financial Risk In China

Global oil as a non renewable energy,plays an important role in the development of the world economy and strategic reserve system.With the increase in the volume of oil futures trading,oil is no longer a single source of energy and is constantly being affected by financial markets.For a long time,the equilibrium between supply and demand has pushed oil prices away from the "pricing of supply and demand" to"capital pricing".At the same time,as a net importer of petroleum,the price fluctuation in the international market affects the financial risk of China's oil.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the early-warning model of petroleum financial risk to avoid the risk of petroleum finance in China.Based on an overview of energy finance and petroleum finance,this paper analyzes the current situation and financial attributes,and explores the influencing factors of domestic and foreign oil finance so as to structure the early warning index system of oil financial risks.Foreign factors include three aspects:price fluctuations caused by changes in supply and demand of the international market and speculative behavior of financial traders.Domestic factors are divided into the market risk brought by the shortage of self-sufficiency rate and the negative effect caused by the shortage of oil demand in the economic development.In the empirical test,the first is to measure the value of petroleum financial risk by using principal component analysis method to reduce the dimension of risk index.Through factor analysis,five influencing factors are constructed to compare with actual economic situation of oil finance in China so as to verify the rationality and validity of the data results.Then,the mean clustering algorithm is used to divide the threshold into four risk states:safety,basic security,mild risk and serious risk.In the calculation results of the risk value,it is considered that the petroleum financial status of our country is in an upward trend,and the mean clustering algorithm shows that the risk degree is continuously improved from the security state in 1987 gradually evolved into a serious risk state.The next risk warning is based on the risk value and the divided risk state.In the method of risk early-warning,ARIMA regression model are compared with BP neural network model to build the suitable model for China's oil finance.As a result,the auto-regressive moving average model is better for the warning.Finally,according to the current situation of China's oil financial risk,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward,including building a strategic oil financial system,establishing a petroleum bank,accelerating the development of oil funds,and improving the legal mechanism for monitoring oil financial risks.After analyzing the risk factors of oil finance,the early-warning model and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward to reduce oil financial risks.On the one hand,it is a practical test to elaborate the domestic and international indicators of oil finance and the related research methods of early warning;on the other hand,by analyzing the current situation of oil finance and exploring relevant policies and measures to prevent oil financial risks,it can provide a reference for the relevant agencies to carry out the prevention and control of oil financial risks and improve the market for petroleum financial transactions so that the whole article has far-reaching theoretical and practical value.