Characteristics And Driving Forces Of Carbon Emissions Of 50 Chinese Cities During 2000-2015

With the rapid development of the social economy,China’s carbon dioxide emissions have grown rapidly,and China became largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2007 in the world.On November 25,2009,the Chinese government announced that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP of 2020 will fall by 40%-45%on the basis of 2005,and which will be included as a binding indicator in the medium and long term planning of national economic and social development.As the most densely populated region and the basic administrative unit of China,cities play an important role in achieving low carbon development goals.On the basis of IPCC accounting methods,this study established a set of carbon dioxide emission accounting methods for Chinese cities based on the current energy consumption statistics of Chinese cities.This study divided urban carbon dioxide emission sources into energy consumption section and non-energy consumption section(industrial processes),and the carbon emission of energy consumption is further divided into industrial sector,transportation sector and other sector.Then this study used this method to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions of 50 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2015,and the distribution of urban carbon emissions and the characteristics of time and space were analyzed.Furthermore,Kaya and LMDI decomposition methods were applied to analyze the driving factors of carbon emission changes in Chinese cities.Results of the research can provide scientific support for scientific assessment of the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential and provide a scientific basis for the construction of low carbon cities in China.The main conclusions include:The carbon emissions of Chinese cities showed an overall growth trend except for cities such as Beijing and Shanghai during 2000-2015.But the growth rate gradually slowed down.The total carbon emissions of 50 Chinese cities increased from 1.164 billion tons in 2000 to 3.485 billion tons in 2015.It will be divided into four stages from 2000 to 2015.During the WTO accession period(2000-2004),the emission growth rate reached 54.64%.Economic growth stage(2004-2008)emission growth rate reached 50.26%.Financial crisis stage(2008-2012)emission growth rate fell to 28.63%.In the new normal stage(2012-2015)emission growth rate dropped sharply to 0.22%.The population of these cities accounted for 30.20%of China’s total population by 2015,but GDP exceeded half of the country,while CO2 emissions accounted for 34.12%,which is nearly 4 percentage points higher than the population.The per capita carbon emissions of 50 cities are 1.13 times that of the national per capita carbon emissions,but the differences between cities are huge.The lowest carbon emissions per capita is Haikou(3.10 tons),and the largest is Tangshan(31.20 tons).Comparing 50 cities’carbon emissions data with the results of carbon emissions data sets such as EDGAR,CDIAC,PKU-CO2 and NIU-CO2,the results show that the emission trends between our accounting results and database results are similar.It is potential to estimate the emissions at the city level with using high-resolution inventory,especially for the cities without emission inventory data.The carbon emissions of the industrial sector account for a high proportion of the total carbon emissions of cities,which is a distinctive feature of China’s urban carbon emissions.Industry(including industrial energy and industrial processes)and transportation contribute 65%and 10%of the total carbon emissions of these cities.Respectively industry plays a leading role in urban carbon emissions.However the growth rate of industrial energy consumption has slowed down in recent years and the contribution of transportation to total emissions has increased.It has even become a major source of carbon dioxide emissions in some cities(such as Haikou,Chengdu,and Shenzhen).Although the coastal developed cities have higher total emissions,due to concentrated resources,high energy efficiency and active implementation of emission reduction measures,the per capita emission level is in the average of 50 cities,and the per capita emissions and total emissions have a downward trend(such as Beijing and Shanghai).Conversely,per capita emissions are high although the total emissions are not so high in some Midwestern cities such as Xining and Yinchuan.Based on the Kaya formula,this study decomposes the drivers of carbon emissions into economic effects,population effects,emission intensity effects,and energy intensity effects.Economic development is the largest driver of the growth of carbon emissions of Chinese cities.In2015,carbon emissions of 50 Chinese cities increased by 3.082 billion tons than year2000,but the contribution of this driver was on the decline(increasing by 19.3%in the new normal stage).Population growth is the second largest factor in carbon emissions growth(an increase of 438million tons of emissions),but its contribution is far less than the contribution of economic development.The improvement of energy efficiency brought by technological progress restrains the growth of emissions,making the energy intensity effect the most important factor to slow down the growth of carbon emissions of Chinese cities(865 million tons of emissions were reduced),but it is difficult to offset the growth of CO2 emissions due to economic effects.The mitigation effect of urban energy structure optimization on carbon emissions began to emerge in the new normal stage,with 189 million tons of emissions reduced.The research method can provide a scientific basis for quantitative assessment and comparison of carbon emission levels in Chinese cities.It provides basic data for analyzing urban carbon emission levels and main driving factors,and exploring urban carbon emission trends.Providing policy advice and data support provides a scientific basis for measuring the effectiveness of emission reduction policies,and is of great significance for China’s carbon trading market and different types of cities to achieve low carbon development.In the new normal stage of economy,Chinese cities should adjust their industrial structure and pay attention to new economic growth points.The focus of low-carbon development strategies between mature cities and emerging cities should be different.Governments should consider the synergies of other policies when setting low-carbon targets and policies.