Study On Ecological Dynamic Change Of Natural Capital And Ecological Carrying Capacity In Huaibei City

Flow capital and stock capital are the two elements that make up natural capital.Analyzing the supply and demand relationship of these two elements is the premise of rational utilization of resources.Ecological resilience,supporting capacity of carrying media and pressure of carrying object are three important elements of ecological carrying capacity,and analyzing the characteristics of these elements is an effective means to evaluate the status of regional sustainable development.Huaibei City is a typical coal resource-exhausted city.The excessive exploitation of coal accelerates the reduction of cultivated land area and environmental pollution,and undermines the balance of"natural-economic-society",which makes subsequent developments more likely to be unsustainable.Quantifying the ecological environment occupancy,natural capital demand and natural capital supply capacity generated by human consumption and waste discharge,and qualitative analysis of the changes of ecological carrying capacity is the foothold to solve the relationship between economic and ecological environment sustainable development in Huaibei City.This research studied the supply-demand relationship of natural capital and the influencing factors of ecological carrying capacity in Huaibei City from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives.The occupation of capital elements and the development capacity of ecosystems in Huaibei City from 2010 to 2016 were quantitatively analyzed by the ecological footprint model,and combining with seven indicators,that is,ecological pressure index,occupancy rate of capital flows,utilization ratio of stock-flows,the ecological footprint for ten thousand Yuan GDP,ecological system diversity index,the eco-economic system development capability index,and the ecologically appropriate population.Based on the three elements of ecological carrying capacity,a comprehensive index evaluation method was adopted to preliminarily select 32 indicators,and 29 of them were retained after correlation test,an evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity of Huaibei City was constructed.Method of mean square deviation decision was used to weight the evaluation index,and multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to screen the three factors.At last,the change of ecological carrying capacity situation of Huaibei City from 2010 to 2016 was qualitatively analyzed.The main results are as follows.1.In the seven years from 2010 to 2016,the per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint of Huaibei City increased from 4.1752 ha/cap to 5.1729 ha/cap,fossil energy is the main driving force,accounting for 92.61%to 95.18%;The per capita ecological carrying capacity remained at the level of around 0.2100 ha/cap,cultivated land and construction land were the main contributors,among which,the share of cultivated land was always the largest,ranging from 56.93%to 58.05%,and the share of construction land was 37.00%to 38.36%;The footprint depth showed a fluctuating downward trend from 1.9195 in 2010 to 1.7574 in 2016,the footprint size was between 0.1550-0.1690 ha/cap,and must occupied stock capital to satisfy the requirements of economic development.2.The results of the seven model parameters show that although Huaibei City had high efficiency in resource utilization and great potential for development,it had been consuming the capital stock for seven years,the ecosystem was extremely unsafe,the land use was extremely unfair,the population was grossly over-represented,the contradiction between resources,environment and development needs of Huaibei City was huge.3.The index of ecological carrying capacity fluctuated from 0.4321 in 2010 to 0.6239 in 2016.Huaibei City had been in a medium to high load-bearing state since 2012,and it's ecological carrying capacity had improved.The supporting capacity of carrying media had the greatest impact on the ecological carrying capacity,accounting for 42.66%;the pressure of carrying objects took the second place,accounting for 37.61%;and the impact of ecological resilience was the smallest.Based on the screening results of three factors,the supporting capacity was mainly affected by the per capita disposable income in rural areas,with the index rising from 0.2592 to 0.7212,which had been at the intermediate to advanced level since 2012;the production of hazardous wastes was the main driving force of pressure;and the resilience was mainly affected by groundwater resources and forest coverage,with the index increased from 0.2570 in 2010 to 0.9126 in 2016,and had been in a self-sustaining and adjusting state with intermediate to higher levels since 2012.4.The main factors affecting the improvement of ecological carrying capacity were per capita arable land area,air quality and better than the proportion of the second-grade days,annual precipitation,green coverage in built-up areas,the number of graduates from colleges and universities,per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry to GDP.The proportion of urban population,the proportion of employees in the mining industry,the proportion of secondary industry to GDP,the production of industrial solid wastes and the production of hazardous wastes were the leading factors for slowing the rate of increase in ecological carrying capacity.