Research On Ecological Carrying Capacity Of Hengshui City Based On Improved Ecological Footprint Model

Ecological carrying capacity is an important indicator for measuring the social and economic development of a region.Ecological footprint model is an important method for evaluating ecological carrying capacity.It uses the districts and counties of Hengshui City as the research area,based on geographic national conditions data,remote sensing data and statistical data,two key factors of ecological footprint model are improved.The dynamic changes of ecological carrying capacity and spatial pattern characteristics of hengshui region from 2015 to 2017 are analyzed by using the improved ecological footprint model and combining with geographic information system.According to the trend of ecological footprint,the grey model was used to predict the ecological carrying capacity of hengshui area from 2018 to 2020.Finally,based on the results of model calculation,the comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity is constructed,so as to evaluate regional ecological carrying capacity from a new perspective.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)The ecological footprint indicators of all districts and counties in Hengshui City were calculated.Localize the two key factors of the ecological footprint to obtain the "provincial hectare" equilibrium factor and the "provincial hectare" yield factor.The improved ecological footprint model was used to calculate the ecological footprint indicators of districts and counties in Hengshui.The results are more authentic and reliable,and are in line with local actual conditions.The results show that from 2015 to 2017,the per capita ecological footprint in Hengshui area has been increasing year by year.The distribution of per capita ecological footprint in each district and county is uneven,and generally shows a distribution pattern of "high levels in northeast region and low levels in southwest region." The evolutionary trend of expansion;The per capita ecological carrying capacity of different districts and counties in Hengshui is quite different,and the distribution pattern is relatively stable,showing a distribution pattern of "low center,high around" in the center of Taocheng District;Most areas of Hengshui basically belong to the critical state of ecological deficits and ecological deficits.The status of ecological deficits continues to be serious,and the dangerous situation of ecological deficits is expanding from northeast to southwest;The ecological footprint depth of each district and county in Hengshui is between 1-2 and is on the rise,indicating that the demand for natural resources consumption in most areas of Hengshui exceeds the local natural resources flow,and the natural resources stock is gradually being consumed.(2)The ecological footprint indicators of districts and counties in Hengshui City were predicted.Using the gray system GM(1,1)model to predict the ecological footprint of each district and county in Hengshui City from 2018 to 2020,the model's prediction accuracy level is excellent,indicating that the prediction model has high accuracy and strong credibility.The results show that from 2018 to 2020,the per capita ecological footprint of most districts and counties in Hengshui City continued to increase,the per capita ecological carrying capacity continued to decrease,the per capita ecological deficit continued to be severe,and the ecological carrying capacity was facing challenges.(3)Established a comprehensive evaluation index system for ecological carrying capacity.The results show that most of Hengshui's ecology in 2015-2017 was at a relatively unsafe and slightly unsafe level,and the ecological pressure showed a distribution pattern of "high in the northwest and low in the southeast".And the ecological situation is becoming more and more dangerous,and the pressure on the ecological environment is gradually increasing;The ecological footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP in each district and county of Hengshui City is decreasing year by year,which indicates that although the resource consumption in Hengshui area is increasing,the resource utilization efficiency is gradually increasing;Hengshui City's ecological diversity index is distributed in three levels.The consumption structure is extremely unreasonable,the consumption structure is less reasonable and the consumption is more reasonable.The closer the city center is to the more reasonable the consumption structure.Based on the analysis results,Hengshui City should strengthen ecological construction in terms of optimizing land use layout and taking advantage of regional internal advantages.