| Facing the severe carbon emission reduction situation and energy security issues,it is the general trend to develop the only bio-energy that can replace fossil energy on a large scale.However,the current bioenergy industry is slow to develop due to high production costs.Many countries in the world have adopted various government-led policies to promote their development.The most effective and most commonly used in the short term is financial subsidy.However,financial subsidy has its limitations.For the long-term development of the biodiesel industry,voluntary mechanisms based on market mechanisms should also be adopted.The national carbon emissions trading market,which was launched at the end of 2017,provides us with the possibility to establish a carbon trading market-based policy instrument,Certified Emission Reduc-tion(CER)trading.In this regard,this paper regards the CER transaction based on the carbon trading market and the government-based financial subsidy as two policy in-struments to promote the development of bio-energy industry,study their economic impact on the development of bio-energy industry,and compare their contribution to the development of the bioenergy industry..First of all,this paper considers the use of bioenergy to replace a certain amount of fossil energy,specifically taking biodiesel instead of transportation energy as an example,adding biodiesel sector in China's 42 sector economic system,using in-put-output analysis method to construct 43 sector input-output model.Secondly,ac-cording to the model,the paper studies the impact of bio-diesel industry on residents'income,tax and GDP by adopting CER transaction and financial subsidy.Finally,the sensitivity analysis method was used to explore the changes in the economic impact of the development of the biodiesel industry when the three key factors of CER price,crop oil production and diesel price changed respectively.Studies have shown that under the scenario of "15%of the need for biodiesel to replace transportation energy in 2020",the most important economic impact of de-veloping the biodiesel industry is direct impact,while causing impact is the second,and indirect impact is minimal.At this time,the development of the biodiesel industry will lose about 156 billion yuan,and the final reduction of GDP will be about 68.104 billion yuan,indicating that the development of the biodiesel industry will have a cer-tain degree of restraint on China's GDP growth,but it will also increase residents' in-come by about 73.861 billion yuan,and increase government revenue by about 14.517 billion yuan;At the same time,it reduced carbon dioxide emissions by about 85.41 million tons.The use of CER transactions to make up for losses will increase the proportion of direct impacts as the value of CERs increases,and the proportion of in-direct effects and causing impacts will decrease;while financial subsidies do not change the proportion of these three effects.Further,the CER transaction will slightly reduce the impact of the development of the biodiesel industry on residents' income and taxation,but will eventually increase the impact value of GDP.The fiscal subsidy will only reduce the government's tax revenue and will not affect the increase in resi-dents' income and GDP.When the crop oil production increases or the diesel price increases,if the subsidy amount is equal to the CER value,the CER transaction can achieve a positive GDP growth earlier.Therefore,in the case of using the same social funds,the CER trading policy has a better effect on the development of the biodiesel industry than the financial subsidy policy.However,the current bioenergy industry needs to participate in carbon trading,and some institutional problems need to be solved.This paper analyzes these institu-tional issues from the perspective of new institutional economics. |
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