Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Financial Transaction Price In China Based On VAR Model

Environmental issues are the most important international issues in the world today,among which greenhouse gas emissions are very prominent.The report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the establishment of a green and low-carbon cycle of economic development and adhere to the development of green finance.At the end of the same year,the Development and Reform Commission announced the launch of the national carbon emission trading market,and China is expected to become largest carbon emission exchange in the world.As an innovation of financial system,carbon finance is conducive to transforming Chinese economic development mode,optimizing the financial market structure,improving cooperation among international financial institutions,promoting the rational use of resources and achieving sustainable economic development.In the process of carbon finance transaction,product price can reflect the resource allocation efficiency and market operation status of the whole market.Compared with the European Union carbon emissions trading system,the fluctuation of carbon finance transaction price in China is very unstable,which seriously affects the construction of carbon trading market.However,when studying the influencing factors of carbon financial transaction price at home and abroad,most of the samples are concentrated in Europe,the United States,the United Kingdom and other regions,and there are few empirical studies on the Chinese market.This paper closely combines the actual situation of carbon finance development in China,based on a detailed analysis of the current situation of domestic carbon finance development,uses real-time data of Chinese market to explore the impact factors of domestic carbon finance transaction price,in order to improve the empirical research of carbon finance in China.2019 is the "simulated operation period" of the national carbon emissions trading,it is urgent to improve the construction of the carbon financial market and enhance the competitiveness of China in the global carbon trading market.This paper studies the factors affecting the carbon financial transaction price,which can promote the reasonable pricing of carbon financial products to a certain extent,stabilize the transaction price of the domestic carbon financial market,and provide a scientific basis for the government to construct the national carbon emissions market.This paper synthetically uses the research methods of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,literature reading and actual investigation to analyze the influencing factors of carbon financial transaction price in China.The results show that: firstly,the overall fluctuation of carbon financial transaction price in China is very unstable,and the transaction price of Beijing is higher than that of other regions in the eight carbon emission centers;secondly,based on the theoretical analysis of carbon finance formation,it is concluded that policy system,carbon emission reduction cost,environmental quality and urban economic structure will have an impact on carbon financial transaction price in China;thirdly,the horizontal comparison analysis of empirical results show that the carbon financial transaction prices in different regions of China are influenced by their own carbon prices,carbon prices in other regions,macroeconomic conditions,oil prices,natural gas prices,stocks and exchange rates,but the degree of influence is distinct in different regions,among which the most important is their own transaction prices;fourthly,the longitudinal comparative analysis of empirical results show that Beijing’s carbon financial transaction price is most affected by the macroeconomic situation,Shanghai’s carbon transaction price is most affected by the euro exchange rate,Guangdong’s is most affected by the natural gas price,Shenzhen’s carbon price is most affected by the carbon price in Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong,and Hubei’s carbon price is most affected by the stock price and macroeconomic situation.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on stabilizing carbon financial transaction price in China,such as optimizing the carbon market trading environment,increasing investment in energy R&D,promoting carbon trading among regions and strengthening international market exchanges.The main innovation of this paper is to use the data of Chinese carbon financial market as the analysis sample,construct quantitative indicators and VAR model with econometric knowledge,and compare the empirical results horizontally and longitudinally.However,due to the limited availability of data,not all carbon trading pilot projects were included in the study,and some factors are difficult to quantify or data are seriously missing,so it may not be able to do a comprehensive analysis.