| Global warming is seriously threatening human beings' survival and development and bring immeasurable losses to world economy.Various countries are starting to attach high importance to environmental governance.Kyoto Protocol provided supports to establishing global carbon financial market,we as the largest carbon-emission entity is responsible for participating carbon emission reduction.We have established eight carbon trading markets trials for trading carbon in Shenzhen,Beijing,Shanghai and so forth and commenced to establish a unified carbon emission rights trading market nationwide.This paper is to make theoretical and empirical analysis to various factors affecting the price of carbon emission rights trading with a view to provide new ideas for effectively evaluating the value of special assets carbon emission rights and gradually improve price formation mechanism of carbon emission trading market.The paper adopted combined method of theoretical research and empirical analysis to research this issue.Through literature analysis and comments at home and abroad on the basis of relevant economic and financial theories,it researched influential mechanism of many factors to carbon emission rights trading price according to current status of carbon trading market of Chinese trial provinces.Applying manufacturing PMI,national thermal power generation,coal price index and EUA forward price to constitute influencing factor index system,take five carbon trading trials as research samples,collect monthly data of various influential factors from 2014 April to 2018 December,apply VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method to make impirical study on influential factors of carbon price,learn about influential situation of various influential factors including influential process and degree.The results showed that carbon price is mostly affected by its historic prices,which indicates that our carbon market is immature;second is carbon price index,the influence of macro-economic factors is lower than carbon price,but they are not too different,the guiding function of foreign carbon price is weak.Eventually,through analysis of empirical results and our national situation,it proposed suggestions from six perspectives such as improving distribution system of carbon quota,discovering reasonable pricing method,innovating carbon financial products,establishing risk prevention and control system and so forth,in order to promote stable development of our carbon trading market.The creative point of the paper is index.Carbon dioxide emission produced in the course of power generating should not be ignored,the influence of the thermal power generation to carbon emission rights price is embodied in macro-economy,there are few researches by domestic scholars on the influence of carbon dioxide on carbon price,therefore,this index should be taken into consideration with a view to improve degree of interpretation for carbon price formulation. |
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