The Decomposition Of Influential Factors And The Simulation Study On Carbon Trading Policy Of Zhejiang Province

In response to the rapid economic development with increasingly prominent energy and resources constraints,environment problems,in September 2009,the UN climate change summit,the Chinese government put forward that by the year of 2020,per unit of GDP carbon emissions to be fell by 40%-45% on the basis of the year of 2005.To fulfill the target,in October 2011,China officially confirmed the first batch of carbon emission trading trials in Beijing,Tianjin,Chongqing,Shanghai,Hubei,Guangdong and Shenzhen.Zhejiang province put forward to complete the preparatory work,the basis of carbon emissions trading will star in 2017,in the year of 2020 to establish a more mature system of carbon trading market.This article first analyses the decomposition of influential factor about carbon emission as well as energy consumption in Zhejiang province by the method of LMDI in terms of Economic scale effect,industrial structure effect,population growth effect and industrial energy consumption intensity effect.Second to builds simulating model about trading the permits of carbon emission in Zhejiang province with the theory of system dynamics,to explore the influence for the economy and environment of Zhejiang province by different design of carbon trading mechanism.As conclusion,before well-developed emission reduction technology is widely used,emission reduction means suppressing economic activities.It will lead into slowdown the speed of economic increase.Through reasonable design of carbon trading mechanism(including the carbon cap,allocation ratio of free permits,subsidy policy)can balance economic increase and energy conservation and emission reduction as much as possible.