| With the massive emission of CO2-based greenhouse gases,the global greenhouse effect is aggravated,and extreme climate occurs frequently.Energy saving and emission reduction has become one of the most serious environmental problems that human beings need to face.As the largest developing country and the largest carbon emitter in the world,China is under tremendous international pressure in energy saving and emission reduction.According to international experience,carbon trading market will be one of the important means of energy saving and emission reduction.At the end of 2017,the National Development and Reform Commission issued the National Carbon Emission Trading Market Construction Plan(Power Generation Industry).China formally established a nationwide carbon trading market,but only selected the power generation industry coverage.Therefore,with the improvement of the carbon trading market,it is of great practical significance to study which industries to continue to choose for coverage in the later period.Firstly,this paper constructs a social accounting matrix,and on the basis of this data,establishes a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium(CGE)model of China's energy environment dynamics to analyze the impact of industry selection under different scenarios on China's economy,environment and carbon trading market itself.This paper innovatively establishes the mathematical model of China's carbon trading mechanism and dynamically embedded it into CGE model.Then six scenarios(scenarios Ba U,ELC,S1,S2,S3 and S4)are constructed according to different industry choices,in order to provide policy recommendations for future industry choices of China's carbon trading market.The simulation results show that the establishment of carbon trading market plays a positive role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions,but it will have a negative impact on economic growth because it will increase the production cost of the production industry,increase the price of products,and affect the output and export of the industry.Among them,coverage of energy production industry(scenario S3)has the greatest negative impact on GDP,but will get the best carbon emission reduction effect;while coverage of energy production and energy-intensive industries(scenario S4)has the least negative impact on GDP,but will get the worst carbon emission reduction effect.Based on the simulation results,this paper puts forward the following suggestions: if we focus on environmental protection,energy conservation and emission reduction,China should choose to cover the energy production industry into the carbon trading market next step,but in this scheme,the rise of energy prices may have a greater negative impact on economic development,so government departments should pay close attention to the rise of energy prices and take administrative measures when necessary.Measures should be taken to control the rise in energy prices and protect the steady development of the economy.If we focus on economic development,China will choose to cover energyintensive and energy-producing industries to enter the carbon trading market in the next step,but the carbon reduction effect of this scheme is the worst of all schemes.Therefore,after adopting this scheme,the government departments should strengthen the research and implementation of other ways of carbon reduction.At the same time,the number of industries covered by this scheme is relatively large,and China should improve the regulation of carbon trading market as soon as possible.Sex and scientific operation plan and corresponding supporting measures to improve the industry capacity of carbon trading market.The establishment of carbon trading market in the short term(before 2030)can not take into account both environmental protection and economic development,so in the establishment of carbon trading market at the same time,we can adopt the introduction of carbon tax and other related policy means to balance them. |
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