Research On The Vulnerability Assessment And Sustainable Development Model Of The Miao Island Islands

Based on the research results of the inductive vulnerability research,this paper combines the actual situation of the island area to conclude that the vulnerability of the island economy refers to the island "people" caused by the special geographical background of the island and human development activities during the development of the island economy.The system of land relations presents varying degrees of sustainability in terms of resources,society,economy and ecological environment.The vulnerability of the island economy includes four subsystems: one is the vulnerability of the island resource system;the second is the vulnerability of the island's ecological environment system;the third is the vulnerability of the island's economic system;the fourth is the vulnerability of the island's social system.Taking the Miaodao Islands as the research object,the statistical data from 1986 to 2016 was selected as the research sample,and the evaluation system including 33 indicators was constructed based on the index selection method and the existing research results.Using the BP neural network model to calculate the vulnerability index of the Miaodao Islands,the results are as follows: Between 1986 and 2016,the resource vulnerability of Changdao County generally increased first and then decreased,and the vulnerability index in 1999 was 0.1396.The minimum is 0.5945 in 2016.The overall environmental vulnerability showed a downward trend.In 1985,the maximum vulnerability index was 0.0982,and the lowest was 0.112 in 2016.However,the fluctuation range was abnormally obvious,and it was basically in a small-cycle state of rising-decreasing.The vulnerability of economic development generally declined,and the vulnerability index decreased from 0.2783 to 0.0869.The trend of social vulnerability changes and the trend of economic fragility are more convergent,and the overall trend has been declining,and its trend of change is relatively stable.The overall vulnerability change showed a downward trend.The vulnerability index decreased from the highest of 0.8195 in 1980 to 0.2671 in 2016.The downward trend was relatively moderate and there was no large fluctuation.From the trend of the cumulative contribution rate of the comprehensive vulnerability index over the years,Social vulnerability is the most important factor affecting comprehensive vulnerability,followed by economic fragility,resource fragility is closely followed,and environmental fragility contributes the least.At the same time,a multi-logical logistic regression model is constructed to explore the mechanism of vulnerability formation in the Miaodao Islands.It is found that the mechanism of vulnerability formation in the Miaodao Islands conforms to the general law of the mechanism of vulnerability in the islands.The generation and development of its vulnerability is the interaction between internal forces and external forces.the result of.Internal pull forces include location conditions,development space,and natural resources.External pull includes social construction,economic scale,and external environment.Finally,combined with the development status and development orientation of Changdao County,the sustainable development model of “ecological environmental protection priority,resource utilization cycle is sustained,economic development is green and efficient,and infrastructure projects are steadily and orderly” is proposed.It mainly includes strengthening natural ecological restoration and human settlements management;increasing investment in social undertakings,improving the level of infrastructure construction;optimizing industrial structure,practicing green and efficient development concepts;improving energy utilization status,and strengthening new energy development and utilization and other specific optimization measures.