Study On The Effect Of Energy Efficiency Improvement On Environment And Economy-Perspective Based On Computable General Equilibrium

Traditionally,it is believed that the improvement of energy efficiency will lead to the reduction of energy use and the corresponding reduction of carbon emissions.However,more and more scholars have found that the improvement of energy efficiency due to "rebound effect" does not necessarily lead to the reduction of energy consumption.The main reason for this is that the corresponding energy price will decrease after the energy efficiency increases,people will use more energy to replace other factors of production,resulting in an increase in energy consumption,offsetting the impact of increased energy efficiency.In this paper,the input-output tables of 42 departments of the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015 are decomposed and merged into input-output tables of 19 departments.The short-term and long-term impacts on the economy and environment are studied by using computable general equilibrium model(CGE)when the energy efficiency of all productive sectors is increased by 5%.The study found that GDP will rise by 0.02% in the short run and 0.45% in the long run.The impact of commodity price changes caused by the improvement of energy efficiency is different in different sectors.In terms of output,the output of the power sector has increased significantly both in the short and long term,the output of the oil and gas sector has decreased in the short and long term,and the output of the non-energy sector has both decreased and increased.In terms of carbon dioxide emissions,it is estimated that under the 2015 baseline scenario,carbon dioxide emissions will reach 10.925 billion tons.With the improvement of energy efficiency,carbon dioxide emissions increased by 0.09% and 0.43% in short-term and long-term,respectively,to 10.935 billion tons and 10.972 billion tons,showing that the improvement of energy efficiency not only failed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,but also increased.Finally,through the sensitivity analysis of substitution elasticity and the improvement of energy efficiency with cost,it is found that the impact of changing technology substitution elasticity and production cost is small,and the model can be considered to be more stable.The improvement of energy efficiency can promote the development of national economy,but its impact on reducing carbon dioxide emissions is limited.The key reason is that China's energy consumption structure and energy demand are relatively flexible.Therefore,in order to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction,we need to change China's energy consumption structure,which is dominated by thermal power,strengthen technological progress and the government's policy leading role,and realize the coordinated development of energy,economy and environment.