Low Carbon Transition Of Transport Sector In China:Modelling And Policy Analysis

The transport sector is responsible for approximately 24%of the total direct carbon dioxide(CO₂)emissions from the fuel combustion globally.In China,the world's largest CO₂emitter,transport sector is the third largest contributor of CO₂ emissions,following electricity and heat production,manufacturing and construction industries.To mitigate impacts of climate change,it is imperative to pursuit low-carbon transition of transportation at the global scale.Low-carbon transition of transportation is a complex process that involves various factors,e.g.technological innovation,optimization of the transport structure,adjustment of the energy mix,government's policy guidance,and individual behavior.Thus,during the low-carbon transition of transportation,it is necessary to take the interactive relationship amongst technology,policy and behavior into consideration.This dissertation explores pathways to achieve the low-carbon transition of the transport sector in China in a comprehensive manner.From the macro perspective,this dissertation firstly identifies the role of transport sector in carbon emissions of the entire economy.As the carbon emission reduction requires technological innovation to offset the future growth,this dissertation estimates the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvement in the transport sector from both production and consumption perspectives,i.e.how producer and consumer respond to energy efficiency improvement.This dissertation further evaluates the effectiveness of various supporting policies to mitigate the rebound effect.Finally,from the micro perspective,this dissertation reveals the determinants of changes in household's vehicle ownership between 2015 and 2017 in China as personal vehicles is one of major contributors to rebound effect.Chapter 2 reports an analysis of the relationship between the transport sector and the rest of the Chinese economy as it affects the generation of CO₂ emissions.Drawing data from input-output tables of China in three years(i.e.2002,2007,and 2012),the hypothetical extraction method(HEM)is employed to quantify these inter-sectoral linkages and to decompose the CO₂ emissions associated with each sub-sector(i.e.the rail,road,water,and air sub-sectors).The transport services required by other sectors of the economy are found to induce more carbon emissions than transportation's own final demands(e.g.household and government consumption).As the technology develops,energy use is becoming increasingly efficient.In Chapter 3,focusing on the production side,this study develops a national multi-sector computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to analyze the rebound effect from a 10%energy efficiency improvement of the transport sector.The findings show that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies according to transport modes.Furthermore,to offset these mode-specific rebound effects,this study simulates the effectiveness of various policies,including economic instruments(in the form of energy,environmental and carbon taxes),adjustments to household's transport consumption structure,and adjustments to the energy structure.To investigate the heterogeneity of rebound effect amongst provinces,Chapter 4focuses on the CO₂ rebound effect of China's urban passenger transport sector,and then investigates the mechanism that how the improvement of energy efficiency in urban passenger transport affect the consumption choices made by the Chinese urban households.From the perspective of consumption side,an empirical study is undertaken to measure both the size of and the variability in this effect at the provincial level as well as the implication of this variability in a carbon tax policy.This rebound effect is quantified using a two-stage Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS)model.The booming consumption of vehicles has resulted in serious energy,environmental and traffic problems in China.In addition,the increase in vehicles demand is also the main cause of rebound effect.Therefore,it is necessary to better understand the heterogeneity of households'vehicle ownership.This will assist policy makers to form policies that guide consumers to use vehicles reasonably and help vehicle dealers to identify target consumers to boost the economy.Chapter 5 presents a multinomial logit model based on a large-scale nationwide dataset in order to explore the determinants of changes in household's vehicle ownership between 2015 and 2017in China.Different households have heterogeneous choices for the vehicle ownership during the study period,including keeping no vehicle,keeping one vehicle,changing no vehicle to one vehicle and vice versa.This study explores the mechanism that various factors(e.g.family structure,financial status,geographic and macroeconomic variables)affect households'vehicle ownership.