Research On Risk Management Of Runway Incursion In Civil Aviation Airports

Since the take-off and landing stages are frequent accident prone stages during the operation of the aircraft and runway is the place for aircraft to take off and land,it is significant to ensure the safety of runway operation.In recent years,with the increase of flights,the airport has taken measures such as expanding and increasing the number of runways to improve the capacity of the airport.However,this has also increased the complexity of runway operation,and preventing runway incursion has become increasingly important.Taking runway incursion problem as the research object and mitigating runway incursion risk as the research objective,this paper studies four key links of runway incursion risk management,including runway incursion risk factors identification,risk level assessment,risk trend prediction and risk prevention and control.First of all,in order to identify all kinds of risk factors comprehensively,quantitative and qualitative risk factor identification technology is used.Combined with safety system engineering theory,the runway incursion risk factors are summarized from four aspects of manmachine-environment-management.Secondly,the evaluation index of runway incursion risk is determined,and the evaluation index system is constructed.Considering the correlation among risk factors,the weight of risk assessment indicators is determined by the improved analytic network process.The runway incursion risk assessment model is established by combining the cloud model with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to quantitatively evaluate the level of runway incursion risk.Then,the grey prediction method is used to predict the development trend of runway incursion risk in a short period of time.The grey prediction model of runway incursion risk trend is established,and the accuracy of the prediction is verified through the analysis of an example.Finally,based on the research results above,combined with the requirements of civil aviation regulations,this paper puts forward suggestions and measures to prevent runway incursion from three aspects: personnel training and operational requirements,technical and hardware settings,and construction and implementation of rules and regulations.This paper studies the key links of runway incursion risk management quantitatively,which can provide theoretical reference for the formulation of practical runway incursion risk management application scheme,and has certain theoretical significance and practical value for runway security.