Research On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Of Flight Operation Risk

Safety is the first element of civil aviation.Flight operation risk is a potential risk affecting the safety of flight operations.Flight operation risk assessment can effectively identify,analyze and evaluate the factors that affect flight operation safety,which is an important means and method to ensure the flight operation safety.This thesis respectively makes an in-depth study on the concepts of flight operation risk,the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the construction of flight operation risk index system and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of flight operation risk.First of all,the thesis briefly introduces the general theory of risk,and extends to explain the concept of flight operation risk.Then it summarizes the relevant theoretical basis of comprehensive evaluation method,and selects several common methods to elaborate the algorithm flow in the field of risk assessment.Secondly,the thesis studies and analyzes the risk factors that affect flight operation safety from the perspective of crew,aircraft and environment.Based on this,a multi-index and multi-level flight risk index system is constructed.Besides,the initial risk value assignment method for leaf node indicators is designed.With the actual operation data of airline,a flight operation risk value database is constructed to provide data support for risk assessment.At the same time,the thesis further studies the index weight setting technology,which provides technical support for risk assessment.Thirdly,the flight operation risk assessment model based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment(FCA)method is established.Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to determine the weight of indicators.Combined with the risk value database,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of flight operation risk is conducted.The evaluation results are obtained and analyzed.Finally,the flight operation risk assessment model based on the measuring of medium truth degree(MMTD)is established.The entropy-weight method is used to determine the weight of indicators.Combined with risk value database,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of flight operation risk is conducted again.To verify the reliability of the experimental results,the flight operation risk is evaluated with the same data based on the entropy-weight analytic hierarchy method at last.