Research On Improve Purchasing Plan In AD Company Based On Forecast

As a pillar of the manufacturing sector of our national economy,market competition and the challenges of change accelerating market demand,reduce costs and improve supply chain flexibility and speed up market response speed requirements of increasingly urgent.While the procurement chain cost reduction and efficiency improvements resulting demand is increasingly prominent,corporate procurement chain optimization needs very urgent.This paper mainly analyzes and improves the related process of the procurement plan of AD company,in order to reduce the cost of procurement and speed the response of AD company.It is mainly studied from the following aspects:First,It is the classification and analysis of purchasing materials.Procurement of raw materials to AD companies types were analyzed,and the use of ABC method to distinguish the key materials and the non-key materials,.variety of procurement of raw materials,separate purchase,procurement cycle is too long have been analyzed and improved,lays the foundation for the accuracy of the procurement plan.Second,the improvement of the procurement process and production mode.Organize the existing procurement process,change the structure of the purchasing organization,originatl,the responsibility between planter and purchasing personnel are spearate,and unify the responsibilities after improvement.Change the procurement of part of raw materials,make the procurement process more concise without increasing the purchase cost,and the supplier’s feedback is more transparent and timely.At the same time,the supplier management has improved the complaint compensation process for raw materials to make supplier management more diversified.The third is the management of procurement plans.The prediction of AD company is divided into qualitative and quantitative methods simultaneously,On one side,giving market survey,group consensus and historical data comparison.On the other side,quantitative methods include the use of simple moving averages,regression analysis,mathematical trend curve method,normal distribution interval and other annual forecasts and monthly estimates.After the improvement of the procurement plan,the analysis of the missing material cost in the procurement plan has further improved the accuracy of the whole procurement plan.After implementing the improvement plan,we adjusted the number of suppliers and the allocation of supply which make the company can effectively control the purchasing cost under the situation of rising raw material.Through the adjustment of purchasing models and forecasting methods,the accuracy of the procurement plan is raised from 83.5% in 2015 to 93.56% in 2017.Reduce inventory levels and improve the market competitiveness of enterprise.The improve supplier management and complaints,increase the company’s cash flow,enhance communication with the same industry person.learning to promote the company’s development.At the same time,the paper also puts forward some ideas and directions for future research.First,an extension of the research on the cost of shortage materials,and the other is to consider other factors that affect the prediction model.