Study On Ship-shore Cooperation Emergency Response Decision-Making Of Passenger Ferry Collision Accident

Passenger ferries are an important component of the public transportation system and are important means of travel.However,in recent years,major water accidents have occurred frequently,and the collision risk of passenger ferries have become more prominent.In order to reduce the loss caused by the collision of passenger ferries and ensure the safety of water traffic,the paper analyzed the existing problems of risk assessment and emergency intervention according to the current research situation both at home and abroad,and then propose the time sequence model of passenger ferries collision and studies the coordinated emergency decision-making of passenger ferries collision from the perspective of emergency decision.Based on the basic concepts of accidents,the article introduces the mathematical method of multi-objective decision theory and emergency decision-making.After analyzing the basis of the advantages and disadvantages of three kinds of emergency decision math methods,according to the characteristics of the accident/incident,Bayesian network was used to make emergency decision-making modeling.Based on the analysis of the passenger ferry collision accident cases,the time series model of passenger ferry collision was established and the emergency intervention methods at different stages of collision were proposed,including the safety before collision,the emergency response during collision,Emergency decision-making and emergency intervention after collision,that is,emergency intervention and emergency decision-making research from the perspective of the development of passenger ship collisions.On the other hand,with the continuous development of collision accidents,maritime affairs and water search and rescue organizations to participate in,so that increasing the complexity of decision-making.On the basis of reading related literatures,combined with expert knowledge and case data,and taking into account the coordinated emergency interventions on the ship-shore,the paper puts forward a three-layer Bayesian network emergency decision-making model.The practical application of Bayesian network three-level frame emergency decision-making model is introduced with examples.The example verification shows that this model considers ship-shore coordinated emergency intervention measures,and its decision-making effect is in line with reality.The main research results are as follows:(1)The process of passenger ferry collision from the occurrence to the final result is analyzed,and the time series development model of passenger ferry collision is proposed.The results showed that the model can explain the importance of each factor in the collision and successful disposal of the ship.The study also revealed an important relationship between the influencing factors,some of which are helpful in preventing or reducing the loss of passenger ferry collisions.(2)Co-emergency decision-making when the passenger ferry collision.Emergency decision-making of accidents has such characteristics as time constraints,resource constraints,information asymmetry and uncertainty,multi-sectoral impacts and multiple influencing factors.Based on the characteristics of passenger ferry collision and emergency interventions,the paper proposed Bayesian network three-level frame emergency decision-making model,that can better integrate historical data and expert experience,as well as handle uncertain information.The paper is to identify the key factors that affect the emergency response of the collision by establishing a bayesian emergency decision model and provide support for emergency decision-making.The research results of the paper have important practical significance for reducing the loss caused by collision accidents of passenger ferries and improving the safety level of water traffic.