Study On Explosion Accident Risk Evolution And Emergency Decision For Urban Oil And Gas Pipeline

As the lifeblood of oil transportation industy in our country,pipeline is playing a more and more important role in our daily production and living and social development.Along with our country modernization unceasing development,oil&gas pipelines cross water supply pipelines,sewers and thermal pipelines,which increases the probability of pipeline leakage.Whereas the flammability and explosibility of oil&gas and more and more pipelines cross regions with dense population,the oil&gas pipelines are of great risk.The study on risk evolution and emergency decision of oil&gas pipelines deflagration is conducted to increase security of oil&gas pipelines.Identify the risk of oil&gas pipelines combined with typical accidents and conducted risk forewarning index system of oil&gas pipelines.The weight value of forewarning index was studied based on IAHP.This paper built risk assessment criterion from corrosion,equipment material,wrong operation,and third-party interference,which included risk levels,warning levels and risk prevention and control measures.Based on the Bow-Tie model of typical accidents,the paper made a brief analysis of the cause of the accidents,consequence of accidents,prevention measures and control measures.On the base of graph theory,linkage map of deflagration accident was drawed,and furthermore the paper calculated the shortest path,the critical path and vertex cut.The further study was conducted on leakage accident on account of bayesian network model,and looked for the path which most likely lead to the leakage.The paper calculated flammable gas cloud volume of different oils and different leakage length on the basis of Fay model and typical oil evaporation model.The four stage of explosion overpressure,once-overpressure,negative pressure,second-overpressure and steady stage were studied based on FLACS.Then,the paper analyzed deflagration accident influence scope compared to different oils and different leakage length.Depending on the overpressure damage criterion,the effect of overpressure on people and buildings was studied further.Combined with the above analysis results,emergency response project for major accident of urban oil&gas pipelines was worked out.The paper recognized risks in the implementation process of emergency response project from personal,equipment,management and environment,and the fishbone diagram of emergency response project was established.Based on multi-attribute utility theory,the attribute tree of major accident of urban oil&gas pipelines was generated and calculated weighted values of each attribute.The paper calculated the utility of different emergency plans on the basis of practical case and found out optimal decision.