| The environment of offshore drilling platform is abominable,existing much flammable and explosive substance and leakage source such as oil and gas pipelines,some human factors can easily cause oil and gas leak that leading to uncontrollable fire,not only causing casualties and great economic losses,but also causing serious pollution and marine ecological damage.According to the accident investigation reports show that the occurrence of fire accidents are related with HOE,these HOE factors are uncertainty,nonlinear and highly dynamic.Therefore,using the system dynamics to study the offshore fire probability and cause factors affecting fire probability plays a vital role in reducing offshore fire probability and improving the whole security of platform.Depending on the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Central university special funding for basic scientific research business expenses,research of offshore platform fire probability is carried out.Firstly,first and second level factors that influence offshore drilling platform fire accident are defined according to BESS in the Mexico Bay area during 1996 ~2015.Then,the system diagram and the casual relationship diagram of fire accident of offshore drilling platform influence factors were drawn and the complex relationships between each factor were dynamically understood.The diagram of influenced factors hierarchical structure were established using the method of interpret structure model.The surface directly causes,the middle indirect cause and the root cause were of influence offshore fire accidents were developed which lay the foundation for the analysis of system dynamic on offshore fire accidents and set up the accident prevention mechanism.The comprehensive weight indexes of each influence factor were determined using AHP method,and the preventive measures were taken through the importance ranking of weight indexes.Secondly,blowout fire accident fault tree is drawn according to the fire accident statistics and the history of literature analysis,analyzing the main causes of blowout fire accidents.The system dynamics can reveal the structure and dynamics behavior of complex systems,analyze and simulate how the dynamic behavior of the system changes with time.On application System Dynamics theory to dynamic prediction of the fire probability of offshore drilling platform.Based on blowout fire accident tree,the dynamic simulation model of the blowout fire probability prediction system of the offshore drilling platform is constructed and the probability of blowout fire is predicted.Use the Origin software to fit probability prediction curve combined probability and the function relation between the simulation time.The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to analyze the uncertain parameters of the model by randomly distributed samples,and the probability interval of 100% of the important variables in the model is obtained.To accurately judge the influence of cause factors of offshore drilling platform on the key nodes,using Bayesian network Netica software to carry out the sensitivity analysis for the main node of the model.Finally,briefly introduces the safety benefits calculation method,the “cost-benefit” analysis decision method and the proportion converts between casualty accidents direct loss and indirect economic,combined with safety economics related theory,build safety benefits analysis simulation model based on system dynamics.Different safety investment can bring different safety benefits,applied control variable method,simulated the different security investment decisions,discuss the dynamic relationship among the accident direct economic loss,the accident total loss and the safety benefits,to determine the safety resource allocation that can reduce the accident loss and maximize the safety benefits,ability to reduce accident loss and the safety benefit maximization of resource allocation,provide the objective basis for the platform to make the safety investment decisions. |
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