Research On Regional Difference Of Carbon Emission Intensity In China Based On Spatial Panel Model

The harm of climate warming to the global ecological environment and human living environment is constantly emerging.As the largest carbon emitter in the world,China's international negotiations are under increasing pressure.However,due to the different ways and stages of economic development in various provinces of China,there are obvious differences in carbon emissions,which brings difficulties to the achievement of carbon emission reduction targets.Through the analysis of regional differences,we can evaluate the path and potential of the future carbon emission,so as to provide a theoretical basis for narrowing the regional difference in carbon emissions and realizing the overall sustainable development of low-carbon economy.In view of this,in order to excavate the internal mechanism of the reason for the regional differences in China,with the help of carbon emission driving factor theory,spatial difference measurement theory,spatial effect theory and Shapley value decomposition theory,this paper aims at excavating the carbon emission intensity and its regional difference index in China.First of all,on the basis of the intensity of CO₂ emissions at the provincial,regional and national scales in China from 2003 to 2016,using descriptive statistical analysis,regional difference measure index?logarithmic spread mean index,Gini coefficient and Thiel index?and GIS visualization method,the regional differences and changing trend of carbon intensity between eastern,central and western regions are described from three perspectives.Secondly,based on the actual situation in China,this paper selects four indicators of population density,per capita GDP,energy consumption structure and industrial structure,and constructs a two-dimensional fixed effect space Dubin model for carbon emission intensity of the three regions.By comparing and analyzing the driving effect of the various influencing factors to different regions of carbon emission intensity,the paper gets an indirect cause of the difference in carbon intensity between the three regions.Finally,based on the panel model of carbon emission intensity,the direct contribution of each factor to the regional difference of carbon intensity is explored by using three types of regional difference index and Shapley value decomposition method.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:?1?There are significant differences in regional carbon emission intensity in China.?1?For 14 years as a whole,the three regions have great differences in the number of provinces with different carbon intensity levels and the average level of carbon emission intensity:the average carbon emission intensity in the central region is the highest,exceeding that in the eastern region by 67%;70%of the provinces in the western region have a high carbon intensity grade,which is much higher than that in the east;no matter from which point of view,the level of carbon emission intensity in the eastern region is the lowest.?2?From the historical development trend,the carbon emission intensity difference and regional difference index between the eastern and central regions,the eastern and western regions are narrowing,and there's a significant difference between the eastern and central regions;the difference between the central and western regions has been narrowed and expanded.?2?Each factor indirectly affects the formation of regional differences through the different effects of carbon emission intensity in different regions.?1?The increase of population density in a province is beneficial to restrain the decrease of CO₂ emission intensity in the eastern region as a whole and the surrounding provinces in the western region,but has a negative impact on the western province.?2?The increase of GDP per capita in one province hinders the control of carbon intensity in the three regions,but it is beneficial to the emission reduction of the surrounding provinces in the western region.?3?The optimization of the energy consumption structure of a province is beneficial to the reduction of the overall carbon emission intensity in the western region,but has the opposite effect on the eastern province and the neighboring provinces,the effect on the central region is not obvious.?4?The alteration of industrial structure has a promoting effect on the reduction of carbon emission intensity in the three regions.?3?Each factor also directly affects the change of regional difference index of carbon emission intensity.?1?The average impact of economic development level can explain 56%of the regional difference of carbon emission intensity,which is far more than other indicators.At the same time,with the significant improvement of its own level,the role of the difference is gradually enhanced.?2?The average contribution of population density is 20%,followed by the important grade of regional differences,but its impact is shrinking year by year.?3?The contribution of the two representative indicators of the technical level?industrial structure and energy consumption structure?to the difference accounted for of 12%and 11%.At the same time,the contribution of industrial structure has been greatly reduced over time,and the effect of energy structure is more stable.