Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Carbon Emission Intensity In Chinese Provinces

Economic growth and energy consumption have led to a dramatic increase in carbon dioxide?CO₂?emissions.Since the industrial revolution,human beings emitted 220×10⁸tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere every year because of energy consumption,compared with 0.4×10⁸ tons before the industrial revolution.The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere has reached the highest value ever recorded by the Earth at 379 ppm.The increase in carbon emissions has led to multiple consequences:melting of glaciers,rising sea levels,tsunami typhoon and other extreme climates,and the production of new types of viruses.If carbon emissions cannot be effectively controlled,it will bring a huge loss to humanity.As the largest developing country,China has seen a large increase in the proportion of industrialization and urbanization since the beginning of reform and opening up.Energy consumption is also at a relatively high level,and China's carbon emissions have been high.In 2007,it surpassed the United States to become the world's largest carbon emitter.This has brought increasing pressure on China in the international negotiations on carbon reduction.On June 30,2015,the Chinese government submitted the National Independent Contribution Document“Strengthening action on climate change—China's national independent contribution”to the UN Secretariat of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to address climate change.The document points out that by 2030,China's carbon emission intensity will fall by 60%to 65%compared with 2005.The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that efforts should be made to solve environmental problems,promote green development,continue to implement air pollution prevention and control operations,and win the environmental protection war.Due to China's vast territory and unbalanced regional development,there must be differences in the provincial carbon emission intensity.In order to realize the new carbon intensity target,we must fully understand the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of China's carbon emission intensity,and provide targeted economic and environmental protection policies.This is a key issue for China to meet its climate change,fulfill its emission reduction commitment,and establish a national image.Based on the social background of the carbon intensity,this paper conducts in-depth research on the spatial autocorrelation and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in 30 provinces?Due to difficulties in data collection,Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan are not the subject of this study?.This is a theoretical support and policy advice for the government to accelerate the reform of the ecological civilization system,build beautiful China,and implement on air pollution prevention actions.This article refers to the calculation method provided by IPCC and obtains the carbon intensity panel data of China's provinces from 2000 to 2015.First of all,from the time series analysis of China's overall carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity and GDP trends,and from the perspective of geographical space analysis of the spatial pattern of provincial carbon emission intensity.Then Moran's index?Moran'I?is used to prove the existence of spatial effects of provincial carbon emission intensity,and the spatial effects of carbon emission intensity are analyzed from the aspects of spatial dependence and spatial agglomeration characteristics.Finally,the spatial effect was added to the regression model of carbon emission intensity,and the influencing factors were empirically analyzed.Through the above theoretical support and empirical analysis,the following conclusions have been drawn:1.China's overall carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year,and provincial carbon emission intensity shows a trend of high west to low east,high north to low south,and the provinces with low carbon emission intensity have obviously increased.2.The spatial autocorrelation of provincial carbon emission intensity is obvious,indicating that the research objects cannot be regarded as homogenous,and they all have obvious spatial dependence.The provinces with similar carbon emission intensity tend to cluster.3.The spatial agglomeration status of China's provincial carbon emission intensity gradually evolved to the L-L model,and the provinces in the L-L aggregation model continued to increase.This is a trend of carbon intensity optimization.4.The increase in the level of opening up to the outside world and the increase in the number of granted patents will have contributed to the reduction of carbon emission intensity.However,economic development,energy structure,energy intensity,and urbanization rate will positively increase the carbon emission intensity.However,the increase of economic development,energy structure,energy intensity,and urbanization rate will positively increase the carbon emission intensity.Finally,based on the previous conclusions,the article provides relevant suggestions for achieving low-carbon emission reduction from aspects of energy consumption control,optimization of the tertiary industry structure,strengthening of technological innovation,and control of foreign direct investment and foreign trade.