Study On The Spatial And Temporal Evolution Of Carbon Emission Intensity In China And Its Driving Mechanism

China pledged it would cut its carbon intensity,which was not only for the sustainable development of the domestic economy,the determination to transform from the simple pursuit of GDP growth to low-carbon and green development,but also the mission and responsibility of a responsible big developing country to promote human progress and development.However,due to vast territory of China,and the large differences between the natural conditions,historical origins,policy orientation,functional localization and many other aspects of all regions,how to formulate a fair and efficient emission mitigation policy plays an important role in promoting coordinated regional development and narrowing the gaps between urban and rural areas.And the policy formulation is dependent on the scientific understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emission intensity and the driving mechanism in different regions.In view of the above,on the one hand,by applying the theory of carbon emission evolution,the theory of regional economic spatial structure evolution and the theory and method of new economic geography,based on the geographical spatial carrier,the mechanism of spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emission intensity in China is comprehensively deconstructed in this study.On the other hand,this study reveals the general rules of the space-time evolution of the carbon intensity in China by spatiotemporal data modeling method.Also,in this study,the driving mechanism of the main influencing factors on the dynamic evolution of the spatial pattern of carbon emission intensity is clarified;the feasible path to promote the transition to a low-carbon economy is found;the locking of space of the high carbon emissions intensity is prevented or reduced;the policy combination system and implementation method of regional carbon emission intensity reduction are put forward.In conclusion,this study is devoted to resolve the predicaments in the dependence of the path of the carbon emissions,to improve economic restructuring and upgrade performance,to promote regional coordinated development,and lay the foundation for the central government and local governments' formulating scientical regional transformation and upgrading policies,and constructing the constrained system of the incentive and compatible carbon emissions.In this paper,the main research content is as follows.(1)Analyzing the regional differences and the source of the carbon intensity in China on the basis of calculating the carbon intensity space panel data in China in 1997-2016,the spatial statistical analysis method and the ArcGIS technology.(2)Calculating the correlation between the carbon intensity in China based on the exploratory spatial and temporal analysis method,and accurately depicting the dynamic evolution process of the space structure of the carbon intendity agglomeration zone in China with the aid of the software analysis techniques such as temporal geographical information system(TGIS)and GeoDA.(3)Inspecting the heterogeneity convergence of carbon intensity between 30 provinces in China,examining the existence of the inverted U-shaped relationship between carbon intensity and economic growth in the disparate areas,further constructing the Markov probability matrix of the carbon intensity in the disparate areas,and revealing the mechanism of the dynamic evolution of carbon intensity local spatial correlation structure in China.(4)Building and depicting STIRPAT spatial template data model of the factors influencing carbon intensity in China,recognizing the space outflow of the affecting factors of carbon intensity in China,and revealing the underlying causes arousing the space-time evolution of carbon intensity in China.(5)Depicting the coupling action relations between the space-time transition of carbon intensity in China and the driving factors,by building nested matrices between the split response types of the driving types and the spatial and temporal migration of carbon intensity,and thus putting forward the policy combination system and implementation method of the reduction of regional carbon intensity.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.(1)The gaps between regions of carbon intensity has been widened first and then narrowed.During the long-term evolution,the carbon intensity of each province has a tendency to converge.According to the five regional divisions,narrowing the differences in carbon intensity between the provinces and regions included in the beijing-tianjin-hebei economic zone and the silk-road economic belt should be especially emphasized.(2)The central government should focus on the path difference in the convergence of carbon emission intensity in the provinces and regions in China.Considering the spatial correlation,the hypothesis of the carbon emission intensity EKC in the five differentiation areas will be supported.The overall carbon intensity of China is still in the rising stage of the left of EKC curve,and the 19 provinces will be the key governance areas when the total carbon emissions of China reaches the peak target in 2030.(3)The distribution of carbon emission intensity in the provinces and regions of China has certain characteristics of spatial locking or path dependence.The spatial agglomeration of China's low carbon intensity is further enhanced,demonstrating the trend of gradual optimization.The radiation effect of the cluster district with high carbon intensity is much stronger than that with low carbon intensity,and the areas with high carbon emission intensity are the focus of energy conversation and emission reduction.(4)On the basis of examining the overflow of the factors affecting the carbon intensity of China,combining the periodidic characteristics of the variable influences made by the driving factors to the carbon intensity space of China,the government needs to break through the "critical effect" that is involved in the driving effects made by the driving factors to the regional carbon emission reduction,and then fundamentally reversing the dilemma of factors restricting about the "spatial locking" with the high carbon intensity in this region and reducing the intensity of carbon emissions at a predetermined period.(5)The economic relationship between the provinces and regions should be valued.Consider constructing the GIS system about the early warning and decision making of carbon emissions based on Web browsers and distributed system architecture by intergrating geospatial information technology and network distributed processing technology.Realize the monitoring and emergency management of the carbon emissions according to different regions and focus,based on the geographical distribution information feedback,and then more efficiently improving the efficiency of the early warning and decision making in the forewarning decision system of carbon emissions.The main innovation of this paper is as follows.(1)From the perspective of complexity science,regard the dynamic evolution of the spatial pattern about the regional carbon intensity as a complex adaptive system.And from the logical relationship of"accumulation-differentiation-transition-driving mechanism-governance model" in the system,analyze how the spatial and temporal difference of regional carbon intensity in China,and the elements of the interaction of time and space migration,relate to each other.From the perspective of the space-time interaction,illustrate the spatial and temporal correlation and the evolution process of the provincial carbon intensity in China.Through methods such as heterogeneous convergence and panel data model,empirically test the emerging regularity of the spatial-temporal differentiation and its migration about the carbon intensity in China.And explore the driving mechanism of the space-time evolution of carbon intensity in China by applying space-time transition matrix and nested quantile regression method,to provide a new research method for the environmental management and sustainable development.(2)Include the spatial-temporal effect in the analytical framework,and meet the requirements of the homogeneity research hypotheses about the"EKC environmental inflection point" in all regions by examining the heterogeneity convergence of carbon intensity in 30 provinces and regions of China,thus developing the test of the EKC curve about the carbon intensity and the judgment of the inflection threshold,also resolving the "heterogeneity problems" in the EKC study about carbon emissions.(3)Integrate spatial geography ideas into empirical models,analyze the spatial spillover of the factors affecting carbon intensity,explore the driving mechanism of the factors to the space-time evolution of carbon intensity,put forward the policy combination system and implementation method about the regional carbon intensity reduction,and resolve the predicament of "space locking" caused by high carbon emissions.