Research On Spatial And Temporal Differences And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions In Transportation Industry

With the rapid development of China's economy and society,the transportation industry has gradually become the main carbon emission source next only to the energy and industrial sectors.Due to the large gap in the level of economic development between different regions,carbon emission reduction policy design needs to be implemented according to specific local characteristics.Therefore,it is of great significance to identify the key influencing factors of carbon emissions for the formulation of low-carbon transport carbon emission policies and the promotion of carbon emission reduction through the discussion of the time-space difference characteristics of carbon emissions of China's transport industry.This paper uses the IPCC recommended "top-down" method is calculated in 2000-2016 years of China's 30 provinces(except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan regions)transport carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity,and carbon emissions as the main research object,using the ArcGIS,Geoda statistical software and Eviews econometric software,respectively from the characteristics of spatial pattern of distribution and its development trends in the timeline feature both calculation and comparison of the transport of carbon emissions characteristics of space and time difference.Finally,based on the LMDI index decomposition method of Kaya identity and the Geographical Weighted Regression analysis method,the paper establishes the influencing factor model for the carbon emissions of transportation industry,analyzes the positive and negative key influencing factors of the traffic carbon emissions in different regions and different time periods from the perspective of space and time,and puts forward the policy suggestions for the energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation in China.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows :(1)there are significant global and local spatial positive autocorrelation characteristics of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry.(2)the north,northeast,coastal areas,the southern coastal region,the Yangtze river middle reaches and traffic in northwest area of carbon emissions in 2000-2006,2006-2011,2011-2016 three consecutive period decomposition gap continues to increase,the eastern coastal areas,areas in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the southwest region traffic carbon decomposition gap first increase after decreases.(3)the level of economic development,population size and energy intensity are the key influencing factors for the carbon emissions of China's transportation industry.The level of economic development is the key positive factor shared by the eight economic zones in three time periods,while the increase,decrease or positive and negative changes of other factors further lead to the changes of carbon emissions of transportation in different stages in each region.To sum up,in order to realize the healthy,green and stable development of China's transportation industry,we should accelerate the transformation of economic development mode,optimize the industrial economic structure,improve the level of energy technology,increase the use of clean energy,and finally improve the transportation system to create a low-carbon and energysaving atmosphere in the whole society.