Spatial Differences Analysis Of Factors Driving Carbon Emissions In Thermal Power Industry Based On GWR

As the largest carbon dioxide（CO₂）emission country in the world,the problem of CO₂ emission has been paid more and more attention.It is well known that the thermal power industry is the major source of China’s CO₂ emissions,and its absolute emissions are still increasing year by year.Hence,it is of great significance to explore the primary driving factors of this industry’s CO₂ emission for realizing the goal of CO₂ reduction in China.Based on the cross-sectional data of CO₂ emissions in China’s thermal power industry from 2003 to 2017,the evolution characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of CO₂ emissions in China’s 30 provinces are explored by using spatial autocorrelation analysis.Meanwhile,through the spatial heterogeneity analysis of the key drivers of CO₂in this industry,the main factors affecting the growth of CO₂ emission are found out,and then put forward targeted carbon emission reduction policy suggestions according to local conditions.The research contents of this paper mainly include three aspects:（1）To calculate the CO₂ emission of China’s thermal power industry from 2003 to 2017,and analyze the total CO₂ emissions and annual growth rate from the national,regional,and provincial levels,respectively;（2）The global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis of CO₂ emissions in China’s thermal power industry from 2003 to 2017 is carried out by using the exploratory spatial data analysis method,which can display the spatial characteristics of CO₂ emissions;（3）A geographically weighted regression model considering the effect of geographical location is introduced to reveal the spatial heterogeneity of different factors affecting CO₂emission in thermal power industry.The empirical results show that:（1）The CO₂ emission in China’s thermal power industry showed a trend of increasing first and then steady from 2003 to 2017,and represented obvious regional differences;（2）The CO₂ emission of thermal power industry in China’s 30 provinces are not randomly distributed,and there are positive spatial aggregation and dependence effects,and the H-H,L-H and L-L types are dominant;（3）The standard coal consumption of power supply is a decisive factor that affects the CO₂emission in thermal power industry.The average utilization hours of thermal power equipment and the installed capacity of thermal power plants have great potential for reducing CO₂ emissions.However,GDP per capita and power supply structure have little impact on CO₂ emissions from thermal power generation.At the same time,these factors show significant regional differences.These findings provide adequate reference and constructive policy recommendations for different regions to better achieve their emission reduction targets.