Study On Collision Risk Measurement And Anti-Collision Decision Method Of Sailing Waters Area For Yacht

With the rise of China national economy,the people's yearning and pursuit for a good life,brings the rapid development of the yacht industry,especially the development of the small passenger yacht industry is getting faster and faster.However,as the development of China aquatic tourism industry is still in its infancy,related management experience and industry technical standards are not perfect,driven by huge tourism demand,at present,the operational safety of most of the domestic sailing waters area for yacht are facing increasing pressure.At the same time,The limited scope of domestic sailing waters area,the complex navigable environment and the cross-convergence among different operating company yacht routes are universal,in addition,small yacht has many characteristics,such as small tonnage,shallow draft,fast navigation speed,weak wind and wave ability,increase risk during the yacht sailing,in particular,the probability of ship collision accident is higher,it is harmful to the life and property of tourists.This paper analyzes the main characteristics of yacht and collision,explores the main causes of collision accidents in sailing waters area for yacht,establishes collision risk assessment system of small yacht,builds collision risk identification,measurement and prediction model for small yacht;proposes multi-vehicle collaborative distributed collision avoidance decision method for small yacht,realizes navigation route design and visualization of collision avoidance track for small yacht.The main research work of this paper:(1)On the basis of defining yacht and sailing waters area for yacht,this paper analyzes the main features of yacht and sailing waters area for yacht,studies the collision behavior characteristics of yacht,draws lessons from domestic and foreign typical yacht collision accidents cases,analyzes the characteristics and the main causes of yacht collision accidents.(2)This paper establishes collision risk assessment system of small yacht by using formal safety assessment method,builds collision risk factor identification and analysis model of small yacht by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,extracts the key elements of collision risk for small yacht,establishes collision risk measurement model for small yacht by using bayesian network,builds collision risk prediction model for small yacht by dynamic bayesian network.(3)This paper analyzes the characteristics of traffic conflict scenes and traffic behaviors in sailing waters area for yacht,combines the movement characteristics of small yacht,uses ship manoeuvre theory,models the movement situation of small yacht,sets up security zone of small yacht,analyzes the steering collision avoidance scenarios of small yacht;combines with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea,uses computer simulation technology,proposes multi-vehicle collaborative distributed collision avoidance decision method for small yacht,on this basis,the design and planning of the sailing lines for small yacht are carried out.(4)This paper takes the Penglai sailing waters area for yacht as an example,uses the risk identification model to identify and extract collision risk factors of small yacht in Penglai waters,uses the risk measurement model to calculate the collision probability of small yacht under various conditions,uses the risk prediction model to analyze the variation of collision risk of small yacht over time;carries on collision avoidance simulation based on proposed multi-vehicle cooperative distributed collision avoidance decision method and route design method for small yacht,realizes visualization of collision avoidance track for small yacht,validates the effectiveness of collision avoidance decision method.The research results of this paper can reduce the collision risk during yacht sailing,protect the personal and property safety of yacht passengers,have a good theoretical and practical significance for ensuring the safety and efficiency of sailing waters area for yacht,provide technical support for the supervision and management of related departments and the healthy development of tourism industry.