Prediction Of Domestic Product Oil Price In China Based On VAR Model

In recent years,with the frequent fluctuations in the price of international crude oil and refined oil,and the increasing dependence of China on imported crude oil and refined oil,the volatile international crude oil price has significantly affected China's domestic refined oil price.The prices of international refined oil products,China's refined oil products,consumer price index,China's crude oil price,and China's refined oil imports also have a significant impact on China's domestic refined oil price.The goal of this paper is to investigate factors such as international crude oil price from January 2000 to December 2017 on China's refined oil price by using Johansen cointegration relationship test,vector autoregressive model and vector error correction model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method.Vector autoregressive models and vector error correction models are stochastic process models used to find linear correlations in multidimensional time series.And they are widely used in economical quantitative investment models and play an important role in the study of many aspects of modern economic life.According to the analysis of the variance decomposition,China's refined oil price were significantly affected by their own fluctuations,followed by China's crude oil price factors,and the remaining five variables accounted for a small percentage of the variance decomposition of Chinese refined oil price.Further predict the China's domestic refined oil price for the next 12 months,and average the 12 sets of data to obtain the monthly average price of China's domestic refined oil in the next year.This has a certain role in promoting the Chinese government's pricing mechanism for refined oil products and residents' confidence in refined oil products.