Prediction Of Cigarette Market Demand In Kunming Based On Combinatorial Analysis

In the recent years,China's national economy continued good development trend of steady progress,optimizing the structure,accelerating the growth of emerging energy,and the overall situation is better than expected.The macro-economic situation will have an important impact on the various links of the tobacco industry,which is an important part of the real economy.In 2017,the tobacco industry has reached 1 trillion and 114 billion 510 million yuan,an increase of 34 billion 932 million yuan,up 3.24%.The industry has achieved the total profits and taxes over one trillion yuan for four consecutive years,and maintained the treasury total trillion yuan for three consecutive years.Considering the characteristics of China's tobacco monopoly system and the experience accumulated in my work,this paper studies the combination forecasting of time series and regression analysis.The relevant cigarette and macroeconomic data were collected from national statistics network,wind software,tobacco market network and regional statistical yearbook.The macroeconomic data include regional economic strength,population size and regional consumption capacity.In this paper,a combination forecasting model of regression prediction and time series prediction is constructed.The combined model takes into account the macroeconomic factors and their own development rules,and has higher prediction accuracy.With the deepening of market-oriented reform of tobacco industry,the role of the market is bigger and bigger.Only by accurately and accurately understanding the needs of consumers can we respect the market rule more.As the starting point of cigarette marketing,demand forecast has an important position in the market reform of the industry.Every city needs to set up a scientific consumption demand forecasting system according to their own characteristics,adjusting and optimizing the market demand prediction mode,promoting the prediction and analysis of cigarette marketing,improving the ability to accurately grasp the real demand and development trend of the market,and ensuring the scientificity and accuracy of prediction.Kunming,Yunnan Province,as an important tourist and commercial city in China,and one of the important central cities in the western region,has obvious characteristics of its own economic development.In 2016,the total number of visitors was 101 million 136 thousand and 100 times,which was more than 15 times the population of the city.The total income of tourism was 107 billion 353 million yuan,which accounted for the 1/4 of the total GDP of Kunming.Abundant tourism resources provide a stage for the growth of cigarette consumption.The number of cigarettes used for tourist souvenirs consumption has increased greatly,triggering the hot sale of high-end cigarette brands and cigarette brands with Yunnan characteristics.Therefore,it is necessary to predict the demand of Kunming cigarette market.Based on the above method,this paper takes the Yunnan Kunming to bacco industry demand forecast as an example to make an empirical anal ysis on the fast developing retail price of Kunming in the 200 yuan/high end cigarette market.According to the prediction effect of different mode ls,we get the comprehensive demand prediction value,and provide a basi s for tobacco enterprises to develop effective marketing strategies,better organize the supply of goods and rationalize inventory management.Considering the characteristics of China's tobacco monopoly system and the experience accumulated in my work,this paper studies the combination forecasting of time series and regression analysis.The relevant cigarette and macroeconomic data were collected from national statistics network,wind software,tobacco market network and regional statistical yearbook.The macroeconomic data include regional economic strength,population size,regional consumption capacity and tourism characteristics of Kunming.In this paper,a combination forecasting model of regression prediction and time series prediction is constructed.The combined model takes into account the macroeconomic factors and their own development rules,and has a more reasonable prediction result.