Research On Optimal Emission-reduction Investment In China's Manufacturing Industry Under The Background Of Carbon-trading Marketization

In recent years,as China's economy has entered the “new normal”,the growth rate of economy has gradually changed from high-speed growth to medium-high-speed growth,and the accompanying environmental problems have also become increasingly prominent.How to control the emission of greenhouse gases and mitigate the adverse effects of carbon dioxide on the environment have gradually attracted the attention of the state and society.In 2014,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen,Tianjin,Chongqing and Hubei launched trials of carbon emissions trading in succession.As of November 2017,the cumulative quota volume of carbon dioxide reached 200 million tons about 4.6 billion yuan.The unified carbon market covering the whole country was formally launched on December 19,2017.This paper first selects two pilot provinces of Hubei and Guangdong as research samples,and takes the manufacturing industry with the largest output value and carbon dioxide emissions in all industries as research object.Then the paper uses the relevant data of the pilot provinces in 2014,combining with the 12 th Five-Year Plan of the two provinces.Aiming at maximizing economic output value,minimizing carbon dioxide emissions,and making reduction of investment reach the expected level,the multi-objective programming model is used to calculate the expected emission-reduction investment amount of manufacturing industry in pilot provinces comparing with the actual amount of emission-reduction investment.Secondly,the paper takes the emission-reduction investment and the purchase of carbon emissions rights in carbon-trading market as the cost,and regards economic benefits owing to carbon dioxide emissions reduction as the benefit.Finally the paper establishes a cost-benefit model to calculate the optimal emission-reduction investment amount in the carbon-trading market,and compares it with the expected emission-reduction investment amount in the 12 th Five-Year Plan.The study found that(1)In order to realize the 12 th Five-Year Plan,it is necessary to make the emission-reduction investment in the manufacturing industry to a certain expected level,but the actual emission-reduction investment in 2015 is quite different from the expected value,mainly because the attribution of carbon emission rights has not been effectively determined.Moreover,the lack of an effective mechanism to internalize the negative externalities of environmental pollution caused by carbon emissions;(2)In the context of the marketization of carbon trading,the government assigns carbon emissions to various industries to determine the attribution of carbon emission rights.Emission-reduction industries participate in carbon-trading market internalizing negative externalities of environmental pollution into costs.Therefore,the carbon-trading market has a reversed effect on the emission-reduction investment narrowing the gap between the actual emission-reduction investment in the industry and the expected emission-reduction investment in the 12 th Five-Year Plan.The policy proposal of this paper is that the government should increase the construction of the carbon-trading market and accelerate its developing speed,and expand the experience of carbon-trading in pilot provinces or cities to the whole country and the scope of industries participating in emission-reduction.Finally we will realize the effective control of the total amount of carbon emissions of our country.