Study On The Impact Of Urbanization On Carbon Emissions In Hebei Province

Because of the difference of geographical location and resource endowment,the ways of urbanization development in different regions are different,but in the process of urbanization,a large amount of energy is consumed.At present,Hebei Province is in the stage of accelerated urbanization,and the demand for energy is even more urgent,resulting in an increase in carbon emissions.In order to maintain the sustainable development of urbanization in Hebei Province,we must adhere to the path of low-carbon development.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in Hebei Province.Based on the relevant data of Hebei Province since 1982,this paper firstly focuses on the trend and law of urbanization,energy consumption and carbon emissions through descriptive analysis method.Secondly,the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in Hebei Province is empirically analyzed by co-integration analysis method and error correction model.The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions,and there is an error correction mechanism in the short term.The paper also explores the transmission mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions by regression analysis,and finds that the effects of urbanization on carbon emissions are economic scale effect,energy consumption effect and industrial structure effect in turn.Thirdly,the VAR(1)model is established to analyze the relationship between urbanization,the proportion of tertiary industry and carbon emission intensity by impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The impulse response function shows that the impact of the proportion of tertiary industry on carbon emission intensity is negative,and the impact of urbanization level on carbon emission intensity changes from positive to negative,and the negative effect gradually expands.The decomposition results show that the three factors contributing to the change of carbon emission intensity are carbon emission intensity itself,the proportion of tertiary industry and the level of urbanization.However,the gap between the contribution rate of urbanization level to carbon emission intensity and the proportion of output value of tertiary industry to the contribution rate of carbon emission intensity is narrowing.Finally,according to the actual situation of Hebei Province,the corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving energy efficiency,adjusting industrial structure,and advocating awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction.